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  1. #1
    Join Date
    May 2016
    PFO Points

    Default What does the math say to do? And should we always listen to the math?

    This hand comes from a local casino $45 rebuy tourney.
    Very fast structure with 20 minutes blinds.
    Fields are 70-90 with 7-8 usually making the money.
    Despite house rake of $15 per buy-in, 1st place always ends up north of $1000.

    H: 9d 9h S: 12k B: 400/800/100 P: Button

    LAG kid (30 yo) All-in for 5.8k from seat 4 (with Ad 6c)
    o My range for him is the big arrow (~33%)
    22+, A2s+, KTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, All broadway, All Ax,

    TP 60 yo nit calls All-in for 3.5k (with AQo)
    o My range for him is very narrow (6%)
    TT+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+

    So, there is now 11, 400 in the pot
    I tank for a solid minute before folding

    Board Kd, 3c, 8h, Js, 9c

    QUESTIONS: With only 15 BBs here, am I supposed to call?

    PokerCruncher shows me 33.4% vs. 22.2% for LAG and 44.4% for TP but I’m not sure how to run the EV math against 2 opponents. If someone can post the formula for this I'd be very grateful.

    Finally, even if the math says call, should I STILL CALL when I know the very worst the Nit has is 2 overs? Taking my stack to 22k at this stage would have mattered a lot (actually would have made me top 1 or 2 stacks at the table) as the blinds go to 500/1000 next and then start doubling, but I figured i had to dodge a minimum of 3 overs and possible 4 overs or an overpair.

    Was the fold the correct play?

  2. #2
    Join Date
    May 2016
    PFO Points


    bump - jeez, 62 view and 0 responses?

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