Well, betting trends and shitty defenses pretty much guide my picks in SF/ARI. Both offenses have a lot to prove and while the 49ers D appears to be improved, who are we kidding? They're not stopping Boldin or Fitz.

ARI +3.5
ARI/SF O44.5

Had SF been laying less than a FG, I would've bet it hard. I just don't see either team running away with this game. Here are a few of the trends I like:

Arizona is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games on the road
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona

There are a lot of factors going into the BAL/CIN game and it really could go either way. Baltimore will be missing starting All-World tackle Jonathan Ogden, starting defensive end Trevor Pryce (both are currently listed as questionable), and while both #1 WR Mark Clayton and #2 CB Samari Rolle are listed as probable, it's with ankle injuries. Now, on Cincy's side they're missing their big play #3 WR Chris Henry until November and Tab Perry hasn't shown a damn thing. Also, starting CB Jonathan Joseph is questionable with a foot injury which could open things up for the Ravens.

CIN -3
BAL/CIN O41

I really, really, really want to take the superior Ravens (IMO) on the road getting points but I can't do it. I can't do it with the #2 QB in the NFL firing to the #1 WR in the NFL. I don't have much faith in the Cincy defense but with the aging line in Baltimore, I wouldn't be surprised to see them get a decent pass rush all night.

McNair is definitely creeping on retirement and Derrick Mason is no longer the big-play threat he once was in Tenessee. That role is Mark Clayton's but will he be slowed by the ankle problem that kept him out of the preseason? Heap is surely to get his but will the Ravens running game look better than it did in August? McGahee has a lot to prove and so does the Bengals' D.

Baltimore is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games on the road
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 10 games when playing Baltimore

I actually got Cincy for -2.5 at Sportsbook so freakin' hoorah for that!

7-0 so far.

I'm pretty much the man.

Thanks to an atrocious Niners/Cards game, I only went 8-1. Pity, haha.