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  1. #1
    Check Raiser lairyboy's Avatar
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    Default WPT All-In Hold-Em

    It takes way too long to explain this game, and no one would read it, so I will make this simple: If anyone has been to Las Vegas recently and played this table game, why does it seem to me that if you don't make the side bets and don't fold any hand (always triple your bet) that the player has the edge here and will win in the long run.

    If no one else has played this game then never mind, or I will post a description of the game if anyone actually cares.

  2. #2
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    I care exact information Ill tell you why the house has the edge

  3. #3
    Check Raiser lairyboy's Avatar
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    Game is played just like Hold'Em. Each player gets their own two down cards and the board of 5 cards is dealt, the best 5 card hand wins. You must beat the dealer to win your bet paid at 1-1.

    You must place a bet on the blind/ante to get two cards, then if you want to play your hand you triple your blind/ante bet (this is what gets paid at 1-1). Then the dealer flips his hand and it must qualify (two cards totalling 11 or more, or any pair, aces are 11) or he folds and pays 1-1 on the ante bet (not the triple bet, you get that back). If the dealer qualifies the board is dealt and if you have the dealer beat he pays your 4 bets at 1-1, or if he has you beat he takes your bets.

    There are two side bets you can make before you get your hand, one is a bet on your hole cards (suited cards 1-1, 22-66 2-1, 77-TT 3-1, JJ-KK 4-1, AA or AKs 20-1, red aces 25-1), and on your final hand (trips (2-1) or better progressing to royal flush (400-1)). This is where I think the house take the edge as 400-1 on a royal flush which is about 10,000-1 are horrible odds.

    If you don't make the side bets and always triple your bet (don't fold) then you should beat the dealer 50% of the time in the long run, except for the times he folds, and you win 1 bet.

    If the dealer folds the worst hands, it takes away the advantage from you when you are a 60% or better favorite, but when you both have junk you win no matter what comes on the board.

    I know the house takes the edge on the side bets, but if you don't make those then wouldn't the player win in the long run?

    P.S. Dealer folds on 8-2, 7-3, 7-2, 6-4, 6-3, 6-2, 5-4, 5-3, 5-2, 4-3, 4-2, 3-2.

    EDIT: Of course I was making the side bets because I was looking to get lucky and win big, but this is a theoretical question.

  4. #4
    Stu Ungar triple-t's Avatar
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    The house has a huge advantage in this game.

    If you play every hand...
    Dealer will fold 14.48% of the time, you win 1 bet

    Since you are playing every hand and the dealer folds sometimes (only the worst heads-up hands), he will have an advantage. So 85.52% of the time, a board gets dealt. When you win, you win 4 bets. When you lose, you lose 4 bets.

    Using Pokerstove to run a Monte Carlo simulation (201M hands), you should win 43.54% of the hands and tie 3.53%. So, since 85.52% of the hands go to the board, and you win 43.54% of those, you are winning 37.24%. The dealer is winning 45.27%
    So anyway, if you were anteing $1 per hand and , your EV is...
    (14.48*1) + (37.24 * 4) - (45.27 * 4)
    14.48 + 148.96 - 181.08
    = -17.64

    This is a HUGE house advantage. You will lose 17.64 cents for every dollar you bet.
    I study at KRE8R's School of Bankroll Management.

    If you IM me looking for money or a trade, you will be blocked.

  5. #5
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    The house only loses 1bet on their shitty hands; you lose 4

  6. #6
    Stu Ungar triple-t's Avatar
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    Best case scenario is to play the same way the house does... House has 2.1% edge.
    I study at KRE8R's School of Bankroll Management.

    If you IM me looking for money or a trade, you will be blocked.

  7. #7
    Siddhartha Pinguaq's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by triple-t View Post
    Best case scenario is to play the same way the house does... House has 2.1% edge.
    I'm having a little trouble understang why somone would play at all. I guess I can see it... "Screw it, I'm here to have fun, a bit of money to burn and want to try a new game."
    "People are always blaming their circumstances for what they are. I don't believe in circumstances. The people who get on in this world are the people who get up and look for the circumstances they want, and if they can't find them, they make them." - George Bernard Shaw

  8. #8
    Stu Ungar triple-t's Avatar
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    All casino games have a house edge. People play because the variance allows some players to win and others to lose.
    I study at KRE8R's School of Bankroll Management.

    If you IM me looking for money or a trade, you will be blocked.

  9. #9
    Check Raiser lairyboy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by triple-t View Post
    Best case scenario is to play the same way the house does... House has 2.1% edge.
    Surely if you and the house play exactly the same then no one has an edge?

    And no one was really playing the game but it is a slow game which takes up a bit of time with the chance to win a few big side bets, so I was enjoying it.

  10. #10
    Stu Ungar triple-t's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lairyboy View Post
    Surely if you and the house play exactly the same then no one has an edge?
    Yes, the house has the edge in the scenario when both you and the dealer have hands that will be folded. You act first and as soon as you fold, the house wins your ante even when he folds after you have.
    I study at KRE8R's School of Bankroll Management.

    If you IM me looking for money or a trade, you will be blocked.

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