(Cross posted from PTP)

Assume no reads...what would you do?

***** Hand History for Game 66911576101 ***** (Poker Stars)
Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em - Friday, September 02, 02:05:59 ET 2011
Table 436010395 52 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Seat 1: urbanracer ( $13998.00 USD )
Seat 2: matze_widi ( $10951.00 USD )
Seat 3: Leifur ( $4370.00 USD )
Seat 4: SITENMORGAN ( $14052.00 USD )
Seat 5: rubzakg ( $13810.00 USD )
Seat 6: Babyboy mast ( $61540.00 USD )
Seat 7: shibke ( $12419.00 USD )
Seat 8: Baezil ( $6440.00 USD )
Seat 9: capdella ( $11155.00 USD )
urbanracer posts ante of [$40.00 USD].
matze_widi posts ante of [$40.00 USD].
Leifur posts ante of [$40.00 USD].
SITENMORGAN posts ante of [$40.00 USD].
rubzakg posts ante of [$40.00 USD].
Babyboy mast posts ante of [$40.00 USD].
shibke posts ante of [$40.00 USD].
Baezil posts ante of [$40.00 USD].
capdella posts ante of [$40.00 USD].
SITENMORGAN posts small blind [$150.00 USD].
rubzakg posts big blind [$300.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to urbanracer [ Qd Kh ]
Babyboy mast folds
shibke folds
Baezil folds
capdella folds
urbanracer raises [$750.00 USD]
matze_widi folds
Leifur folds
SITENMORGAN raises [$1650.00 USD]
rubzakg folds
urbanracer calls [$1050.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Kd, 4d, 7c ]
SITENMORGAN bets [$2100.00 USD]
urbanracer calls [$2100.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5d ]
SITENMORGAN bets [$10112.00 USD]
urbanracer ????

I hate hands like that! There's a very good chance he's bluffing, as it's such a great bluff card. Trouble is, you cant really go broke with top pair when you have almost 50BB. The only thing your beating really is KJ or K10, or a complete bluff. I'd probably fold and wait for a better spot. Interested to see what others would do, as this is exactly the kind of hand I hate myself for afterwards!

If he has, as he is representing, a diamond flush you are drawing dead.
The only time I would risk the majority of my chips is if I had a hand that might outdraw the flush.
My guess is that he has the Ad if not the flush and might outdraw you on the river if you call.
Top pair is still only a pair.

What does anyone think about a fold pre? A bit too nitty? With no reads, it's hard to say whether you're ahead of someone's range, especially since they should be aware that they'll be OOP for the hand.

As played, I think I agree -- I can't see calling off here. He 3bet pre, c-bet and stuffed it on the turn. I'm thinking AK w/nut flush (draw) or AA. Although I'm not sure AA plays the hand like this -- maybe?

Out of interest, what makes you think he's never made a flush here? Just interested in your thought process.

Looking at it again, I think that could easily be AA (with diamonds). His min raise pre is highly suspicious, and he seems to want to keep you in with little bets.

That's almost my 3-bet size fwiw -- I generally do about 2.5x, and then +1 for every extra player in the pot.

Originally Posted by colinbradley7

Out of interest, what makes you think he's never made a flush here? Just interested in your thought process.

Looking at it again, I think that could easily be AA (with diamonds). His min raise pre is highly suspicious, and he seems to want to keep you in with little bets.

I agree with this, and even makes me think more that he's got AA here, with or without diamonds. A flush would certainly want more value, whereas AA can shove here and doesn't mind much if he gets folds (since he's still at risk) and if he does get it in, it's slightly ahead of the draw (assuming he doesn't have it) and crushing everything else.

Originally Posted by KnightofNarg

What hands would he be 3betting that would give him a flush? Think blockers, AdKd and AdQd are the most likely hands, but Kd is out on the board and we are holding the Qd. If he was going for a resteal preflop with a smaller Adxd type the 3bet would be larger, at least 2000. Then overbet shoving the turn isn't the way most would try to get value with a flush.

At some point in every tourny we have to put all our chips on the line, but do you really think this is the best spot you are going to get? I'd sooner fold here and shove all-in on the next hand with 75s even if the action has been rasied before I act. Tournies are about survival, survival and survival and when you get involved in a hand be the raiser, hardly ever be the caller.