If you've never folded the best hand then you're calling too much!

Once a long time ago I laid down AA preflop in a 3-table S'nG at about level 4 or 5 and about 15 of 27 players left. Tried to find the HH but it's been like 3 years ago or more but it went something like EP limps 100 and I raise from MP to 400 then CO shoves a medium stack +/- 20BB only to be followed with all-ins from Btn, SB, BB and the limper. That's 5 all-ins vs my pocket AA. Looks real good huh? Except against that many players no pocket pair including aces are favored to win. I folded and the table showed CO had JJ, Btn had AKo, SB (shortstacked at about 9BB) had KQs, BB had JTo and EP limper had 87s. BB won with flopped trips on a board T-T-4-?-?.
How could I fold? Well I knew I wasn't favored to win vs 5 but I also reasoned 4 of those 5 were about to leave the game and while the remaining player would have a huge big stack I figured with 4 players gone I was that much closer to the money. But while I remember the hand I don't remember where I finished in that game!

Here's the odds for each hand from Pokerstove:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.089% 46.64% 00.44% 306927 2925.00 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 08.385% 07.83% 00.55% 51544 3630.00 { JdJh }
Hand 2: 04.361% 03.78% 00.58% 24904 3789.50 { AhKs }
Hand 3: 11.140% 10.99% 00.15% 72318 982.50 { KdQd }
Hand 4: 07.655% 07.10% 00.55% 46738 3630.00 { JsTc }
Hand 5: 21.371% 21.35% 00.02% 140502 118.00 { 8c7c }

^I'm calling there.

The games you should be folding AA are tournaments with a flat pay scale, like sattelites or "Double or Nothings".
When you're at the bubble in those games folding everything (AA included) to a shove where someone has you covered is the right choice, especially when multiple shortstacks are coming up on the blinds and will be forced allin.

Originally Posted by Aces-o-8s

If you've never folded the best hand then you're calling too much!

Once a long time ago I laid down AA preflop in a 3-table S'nG at about level 4 or 5 and about 15 of 27 players left. Tried to find the HH but it's been like 3 years ago or more but it went something like EP limps 100 and I raise from MP to 400 then CO shoves a medium stack +/- 20BB only to be followed with all-ins from Btn, SB, BB and the limper. That's 5 all-ins vs my pocket AA. Looks real good huh? Except against that many players no pocket pair including aces are favored to win. I folded and the table showed CO had JJ, Btn had AKo, SB (shortstacked at about 9BB) had KQs, BB had JTo and EP limper had 87s. BB won with flopped trips on a board T-T-4-?-?.
How could I fold? Well I knew I wasn't favored to win vs 5 but I also reasoned 4 of those 5 were about to leave the game and while the remaining player would have a huge big stack I figured with 4 players gone I was that much closer to the money. But while I remember the hand I don't remember where I finished in that game!

Here's the odds for each hand from Pokerstove:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.089% 46.64% 00.44% 306927 2925.00 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 08.385% 07.83% 00.55% 51544 3630.00 { JdJh }
Hand 2: 04.361% 03.78% 00.58% 24904 3789.50 { AhKs }
Hand 3: 11.140% 10.99% 00.15% 72318 982.50 { KdQd }
Hand 4: 07.655% 07.10% 00.55% 46738 3630.00 { JsTc }
Hand 5: 21.371% 21.35% 00.02% 140502 118.00 { 8c7c }

So, you were 47% to win, the next closest hand was 21% and you think you made the right fold because you were less then 50%? You may want to rethink that strategy.

Some people just don't like coinflips

Originally Posted by Trons

So, you were 47% to win, the next closest hand was 21% and you think you made the right fold because you were less then 50%? You may want to rethink that strategy.

I didn't say I was right to fold! Or wrong either! I folded b/c a quarter of the field was about to eliminated or crippled so bad they were likley gone anyway and since I was not favoured to win anyway, it was a better decision (for me) to fold than chance that just a pair (preflop) was good enough to win at showdown.

But you have a taken a position - want to rethink that strategy at all? Oh ya, and you have to back it up with some kind of arguement to justify it! Simply implying I was wrong doesn't make you right!!

15 of 27 players left

At that stage I'm about chip accumulation , talking about "getting close to the money" is a bit absurd . Don't think I'd fold this on the bubble either . Yes , you are not favored to win , but the 47% of the time you quintuple with a good chance to go for the first place . Haven't played a lot of Multi-Table STT's , but from what I learned you're always going for the first place due the significant jumps in the payout structure .

I'm taking that gamble any day , and just fire up another tourney if I bust .