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About LinkBacksHi...I'm interested to know what people think of this move...I think it's a bit like marmite!
Live MTT and I've just been moved tables. 18 players left, top 9 are paid.
Blinds are 600/1200 with a 100 ante. I'm in the BB with 77 (I have around 14,000 in chips).
All players fold round to the CO who is very short stacked and goes all-in for around 4500 chips. Chip Leader (probably 50-100K in chips) on the button calls. The BTN is the only player I know anything about....he's been playing KQo, A-J type hands and hitting on the flop EVERY time!
SB folds and the action is on me. I know calling is not an option, and many times I would fold, however, I knew the CO would be doing this with any high card, and if I could get the chip leader out of the pot, I would be creating dead money and have a good chance with the short stack.
I rasied all-in, meaning the chip leader had to put in another 10K or so...almost a pot sized bet. I wanted some opinions on this before I let you know how it went...
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Thread: Opinions Please...
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05-13-2011 #1Fish
- Join Date
- May 2011
- Posts
- 64
Opinions Please...
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05-13-2011 #2
Just kinda doing this as a starting point. I made it 50/50 BU fold, if he folds more that's for the better. I figure you're a bit behind a coinflip HU against the shortstack. If BU calls, I think you're in deep trouble and a 25% chance to win should be pretty good.
So main variables I think we should be looking at is...
1)BU's fold %
2)HU equity against CO
Shove - 50% Bu Folds - Pot = 14100 (3600)
+2100 40% win = 10500
-990 60% lose= 3300
Shove - 50% Bu Calls - Pot = 33100 (14000)
+2387 25% win = 19100
-5250 75% lose= 14000
-1753 Difference, no good. A play that loses chips is obviously bad.
Ok, so lets say BU folds about 75% of the time.
Shove - 75% Bu Folds - Pot = 14100 (3600)
+3150 40% win = 10500
-1485 60% lose= 3300
Shove - 25% Bu Calls - Pot = 33100 (14000)
+1193 25% win = 19100
-2625 75% lose= 14000
+233 Difference, Very marginal, which isn't good enough in a tournament.
So lets say BU folds 75%, and you're on the shiny side of a coinflip HU vs CO.
Shove - 75% Bu Folds - Pot = 14100 (3600)
+4725 60% win = 10500
-990 40% lose= 3300
Shove - 25% Bu Calls - Pot = 33100 (14000)
+1193 25% win = 19100
-2625 75% lose= 14000
+2303 Difference, which is okay. But keep in mind chipEV doesn't equal $ev (the old saying "goes chips lost are worth more than chips won", or something like that).
So, it CAN be okay if you're sure the situation will be favorable to you, but also it's likely to be high variance. The decision is yours OP, there's a lot of variables that only you would have a good idea of. Personally, I'm probably folding this one.Last edited by KnightofNarg; 05-13-2011 at 09:20 PM.
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