Thought about just posting this to the "big river bet thread," since it's in the same genre, but it was on the flop here, so it's a bit different, since draws are likely.
Villain is not a bad player, but hasn't played $30 for long either... not enough games for a $30 point on his ROI% vs. Entry Fee graph. SS stats are:
2,484 games played (almost twice as much as me!), $1 average profit (same as me, due to all the $10 games I used to play), $6 average stake (lower than me), 12% ROI (higher than me overall, since I used to play drunk, but lower than my current stats at 20-30$), $1,594 Total Profit (about the same as me).
I was pretty sure I could take him, and was right, in the end, although he put a bad beat on me all in with AT vs. AK and I had to claw my way back into the lead and win with a bad beat of my own with A6 vs. A8.
This hand was about halfway through the tournament - it was nearing the end of the 40/80 blind level when I finally busted him. He was playing very tight-weak, so I was raising a lot, and I'm sure he was smart enough to notice. When he played back at me, it was usually to raise my CBs on flops like KQ6 two-suited. Whether that's because he was calling with mostly paint preflop and hitting TPWK-type hands on those flops, or just because he figured they hit his range stronger than mine and he could bluff, I don't know.
Anyway, what does this push mean from this guy? I think my fold has to be correct, as he's got tons of outs when I'm ahead, and I have few when I'm behind. Nonetheless, I'm curious about what this push means. Would I call it if I had A7 instead of A5? What if I had 65?
Despite what I said in the game, I'm not convinced it was just some random 6, though that is possible. I have a hunch I know his exact hand (not the suits, mind you), but I'll wait to let other people speculate before I hazard my guess.
Seat 1: Xopods (1,845)
Seat 2: minawebmas (1,155)
minawebmas posts the small blind of 25
Xopods posts the big blind of 50
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Xopods [5d Ad]
minawebmas calls 25
Xopods checks
*** FLOP *** [7c 4d 5s]
Xopods bets 100
minawebmas raises to 1,105, and is all in
Xopods: hmmm
Xopods has 15 seconds left to act
Xopods: probably just a 6... but then you still have 13 outs
Xopods folds
Uncalled bet of 1,005 returned to minawebmas
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Thread: Tight-weak push on low flop HU
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02-05-2009 #1Check Raiser
- Join Date
- Jan 2009
- Posts
- 524
Tight-weak push on low flop HU
Last edited by Xopods; 02-05-2009 at 05:15 AM.
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02-05-2009 #2
A push with 100 in the pot like that plus the 100 you put in does seem kind of donk'ish but I would think he has trips or two pair. You both got to the flop pretty cheap and if he only had a pair even pair with top kicker, i couldn't see the push all in.
As for the exact cards, I'm not sure.. even 8 6 would of been a viable hand for that flop. Why he wouldn't slow play it out, I don't know.. at least to try to raise into you on the next street. But a push of that kind I would assume he didn't know what to put you on, hit two pair.. maybe middle and bottom pair, and wanted to protect his hand.
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02-05-2009 #3Check Raiser
- Join Date
- Jan 2009
- Posts
- 524
My theory is 76. That's the only hand I'd consider making this ridiculous-looking push with. Why? Because anything stronger would probably flat call or make a normal raise, as you say, while a naked 6 probably calls and waits to see if I look weak on the turn before trying to push me off.
76, on the other hand, is ahead of a lot, but very vulnerable, while simultaneously having lots of outs against almost anything that beats it. Moreover, one of the important principles in poker is that you want your opponent to be the one making the difficult decisions, not you. Deciding what to do about that push is difficult for a lot of hands I could have... conversely, 76 is going to have a tough decision to make if I push back when he raises, or even more so if I flat call and the turn blanks for him.
You're right that it could also be two pair, getting paranoid about a bad beat coming up. Set, probably not. I'd say a set is calling and then either hammering a blank turn, or continuing to slowplay and looking to boat up on the river if a straight card lands.Last edited by Xopods; 02-05-2009 at 12:26 PM.
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02-05-2009 #4
Agreed. Set came up at first but the way it was played seemed off to me which is why I came back around to the theory of a possible two pair. I definitely see your logic on the 76 as it would make sense as well.
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02-05-2009 #5
76 would def. make sense to me if he was playing weak-tight I would see him flat calling on the flop with a set to try and get more value, if you had 56 then I think it would have been a harder decision, I think a5 was a good lay down there
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