Big river bet, heads up

**Xopods** · 02-01-2009

Given that the opponent is a donk (known both from his play up to this point, and that his SharkScope stats show him at -20% ROI overall, and -50% (!!!) at $20 stakes), and that he thought for quite a while before betting, do you make this call?

Results posted tomorrow. Villain's cards are known, either because he showed after hero folded, or because hero called.

Full Tilt Poker Game #10376421329: $20 + $1 Heads Up Sit & Go (78489932), Table 1 - 15/30 - No Limit Hold'em - 14:08:47 ET - 2009/02/01
Seat 1: Xopods (2,025)
Seat 2: RiverBuster81 (975)
Xopods posts the small blind of 15
RiverBuster81 posts the big blind of 30
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Xopods [Tc 9h]
Xopods raises to 90
RiverBuster81 calls 60
*** FLOP *** [8d 2h 2d]
RiverBuster81 checks
Xopods checks
*** TURN *** [8d 2h 2d] [JavaScript]
RiverBuster81 bets 150
Xopods calls 150
*** RIVER *** [8d 2h 2d JavaScript] [9d]
RiverBuster81 has 15 seconds left to act
RiverBuster81 bets 570

**DT Pro** · 02-02-2009

That's a fold for me. All you're really beating here is a bluffed straight draw, which you tie, or air. On top of that, you still have a fairly solid chip lead by letting it go. If you call and are beat, you've given up your chip lead which is so huge for heads up play. He's put in over half his stack on the river as well so is very unlikely going to fold anything better than you if you shove.

While the overbet is usually a bunch of crap, I just don't see a call here profitable enough to be justified.

**Xopods** · 02-02-2009

Originally Posted by DT Pro

That's a fold for me. All you're really beating here is a bluffed straight draw, which you tie, or air. On top of that, you still have a fairly solid chip lead by letting it go. If you call and are beat, you've given up your chip lead which is so huge for heads up play. He's put in over half his stack on the river as well so is very unlikely going to fold anything better than you if you shove.

While the overbet is usually a bunch of crap, I just don't see a call here profitable enough to be justified.

Perfectly reasonable advice... before I post how the hand unfolded, though, I'll leave a few more hours to let other people make their guesses.

In the meantime, what hands can you put him on here?

**Xopods** · 02-02-2009

Alright. Guess no one else is going to voice an opinion, so here's the end of the hand:

Xopods calls 570
*** SHOW DOWN ***
RiverBuster81 shows [Kd Qc] a pair of Twos
Xopods shows [Tc 9h] two pair, Nines and Twos
Xopods wins the pot (1,620) with two pair, Nines and Twos

----

My first instinct was more of less what you said, "Damn. There's a good chance he's bluffing, but I can't call that much with just second pair on this board." However, then I asked myself what hand he'd be playing this way:

I could imagine a good player choosing this line with a flush draw... try to check-raise the flop, then try to take the pot down on the turn when it looks like I'm surrendering it, finally hammering the river when the flush hits and he thinks I might have been slowplaying a deuce. However, that kind of play seemed way beyond this guy. He'd probably have made a small bet on the flop or a smaller bet on the turn with a flush draw, and likely would have tried to check-raise me with a made flush on the river, or else made a small milking bet instead of this one.

I can't imagine anyone, donkey or not, making that bet with a J here. I can imagine him slowplaying aces, but I don't think he'd bet that much on the river - donks are scared of flushes and of opponents who check and call when there's a pair on the board (since trips are always slowplayed. ALWAYS!).

88 seems possible at first, but this kind of player almost always pushes any small/middle PP to a pre-flop raise, especially once they're below 1000 chips.

T7 or QT are within the realm of plausibility, but he probably would have bet the flop with QT (when you raise preflop and the board comes out like this, bad players always assume you have K high or A high), and again, the river bet seems too big to be that kind of hand.

Really, the only thing other than a bluff that I could see him playing this way with any likelihood was a 2 of some sort, and my gut feeling was that he'd probably have bet more quickly if it was a 2, rather than thinking about it. If he did stop to think, it would be to worry about the flush, and then he probably would have made a smaller bet. Thinking about it now, I suppose 92s would have made perfect sense, but it would have to be clubs or spades, so there are only two ways he's got that, and I'm not 100% sure that even this guy would call a preflop raise with that when his chips are dwindling.

In the end, I decided this was going to be a desperate bluff more than 50% of the time, and a very badly-played 2 the rest of the time. He must have been 90% sure I was going to fold to the turn bet, and sure that he was beat (probably by A high, since he would have called that turn with A high in my position) when I called, but then the diamond on the river gave him hope that he could represent the flush and get his chips back.

The funny thing is that I would have folded for sure if he'd bet half the pot on the river... I only made the call because the size of his bets made no sense if he was holding any of the hands I was worried about.

**DT Pro** · 02-02-2009

I haven't played heads up in a while, but I don't see how 107, Q10, and a random J don't fit his line. I actually think he rarely has a 2 in this spot as the only 2 hands I'd even imagine calling OOP heads up are 22 (reraise most of the time) and A2s (probably fold 70% of the time, call 20% and 3bet 10% depending on images and stacks).

You almost never show up with a flush because you'd cbet that flop almost every time and are not likely to call a gutshot on the turn, so there would be value betting a J. In addition, if I had 107, Q10, or a J I bet the turn in his spot since you don't seem too thrilled with the flop to begin with. A call by you tells me you are probably on a straight draw yourself or have overs, and I'd lean more towards the overs.

The only part that doesn't make sense in his line is the overbet on the river, but then I almost never overbet the pot and definitely never (save a shove) overbet heads up. If you read that overbet as a bluff then your call is ok I guess, but again I don't think it's worth the risk at this point in the game. For what it's worth, I read his overbet as a bluff as well, it's just I think the risk is not worth the reward in this specific set of circumstances. Especially considering you're in the first level and already took him for 1k. You're obviously going to beat him most of the time by making solid aggressive plays with a chip lead already since you're clearly a better thinking player than this guy.

I also agree that if he bets a more reasonable bet on the river it's an insta-fold for me. The overbet would have me thinking more, but I'd likely fold for the reasons stated.

All that said, nice read and nice call.

**22Fish** · 02-02-2009

Wish I could manage this amount of player analysis mid play at heads up.

I was thinking about commenting, but really it is so hard to take any play heads up in isolation, that it would have been worthless advice. I think this is at least partly shown by your own analysis.

My initial thoughts were fold fwiw, thinking that he was a stange 2 enough of the time and getting bad pot odds. I also have an "avoid calling bets from donks" mentality.

Having read your post however it seems a good call enough of the time to cope with not getting great odds to your money.

**Xopods** · 02-02-2009

Originally Posted by DT Pro

You almost never show up with a flush because you'd cbet that flop almost every time and are not likely to call a gutshot on the turn, so there would be value betting a J. In addition, if I had 107, Q10, or a J I bet the turn in his spot since you don't seem too thrilled with the flop to begin with. A call by you tells me you are probably on a straight draw yourself or have overs, and I'd lean more towards the overs.

This guy has -50% ROI at 20$, and -20% overall, let's not forget. There's no way this guy is thinking anything nearly this complicated. Probably, he hasn't put any thought into my hand other than "he raised preflop and there's no paint on the flop, so he can't have much."

Originally Posted by 22Fish

Wish I could manage this amount of player analysis mid play at heads up.

Well, to be honest, the details of the analysis are post hoc, to check whether my instinctive feelings were reasonable... the actual thought process at the time was more like:

Hey, rivered a pair. Hope he lets me check this down. He's sure thinking a long time. 570?! WTF? Guess I have to fold. It's probably a bluff, but there are so many ways I could be beat, I can't call. On the other hand, can I really put him on any of those hands? Flush is the most obvious, but I'm not feeling it. Jack or overpair? No way, not that big of a bet. Boat? No, 92/J2 aren't likely, even for this guy, and he'd be pushing any pocket pair preflop. Man, now that I think about it, I really feel like calling this. Can I afford it? The game's basically over if I call and I'm right. Why's he leaving himself with 150 chips instead of just pushing, anyway? Must want to give himself the chance at a comeback if he loses. Yeah, he's definitely bluffing. If I'm wrong, I'm still only a little behind and he'll probably double me up as soon as I get a big hand anyway. Okay, let's chance it.

**Xopods** · 02-03-2009

Alright. Similar kind of situation, but the opposite; rather than an uber-donk, here, it's (I believe) a fellow shark - looked me up after a dozen hands and said "Wow, 59% at heads up. That's about what I do... It's been weeks since I've seen anyone else with those kinds of stats." I suppose he could be lying about being that good himself... I'm out of SS searches for the day.

He was playing extremely tight, though. Probably works very well against the donks, just not against me. He made one loose call early on, when the flop came out KT5, all hearts, I had QJ and CBed, he called with Ah5x, turn blanked and was checked, and I rivered a 9 (not hearts, of course) and bet the pot, representing a bluff, and he took the bait. I think after that is when he decided to look me up. After that, he was folding almost everything, and I was betting a lot and folding whenever he played back at me.

I knew he was waiting for a sort of TPGK or better situation so he could take advantage of my LAGgy behaviour, but I didn't feel it on this river. I felt pretty sure he wasn't checking down a J here. Straight was possible, but I thought it more likely that he figured my river bet meant either a weak 9 or complete air (which it did), and that since he knew that I'm good, and given his own image, he was pretty sure I'd fold to a raise. So I called...

Full Tilt Poker Game #10421480184: $30 + $1.50 Heads Up Sit & Go (78790103), Table 1 - 20/40 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:38:16 ET - 2009/02/03
Seat 1: Xopods (2,330)
Seat 2: Davenport35 (670)
Davenport35 posts the small blind of 20
Xopods posts the big blind of 40
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Xopods [9s Jc]
Davenport35 calls 20
Xopods checks
*** FLOP *** [3s 4h Qc]
Xopods checks
Davenport35 checks
*** TURN *** [3s 4h Qc] [5h]
Xopods checks
Davenport35 checks
*** RIVER *** [3s 4h Qc 5h] [9d]
Xopods bets 40
Davenport35 raises to 160
Xopods: Hm
Xopods has 15 seconds left to act
Xopods: Gonna call here, just cause you think I'm betting too much
Xopods calls 120
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Davenport35 shows ???

Any guesses as to whether I was right or wrong, and/or speculation about what he might have?

**DT Pro** · 02-04-2009

I make that call all day. For starters, there's a decent enough chance you're winning. He may read the min bet as you just trying to pick up an obviously weak pot, and be tired of you betting at him.

Secondly, you get loads of information for not very much money. Is he limping low cards like 26? 67s? Is he extreme slow playing AQ (not likely if he really is 59% ROI)? The information you gain is worth more than the extra 3 BBs you have to call, especially with stack sizes how they are.

**Xopods** · 02-04-2009

Originally Posted by DT Pro

I make that call all day. For starters, there's a decent enough chance you're winning. He may read the min bet as you just trying to pick up an obviously weak pot, and be tired of you betting at him.

Secondly, you get loads of information for not very much money. Is he limping low cards like 26? 67s? Is he extreme slow playing AQ (not likely if he really is 59% ROI)? The information you gain is worth more than the extra 3 BBs you have to call, especially with stack sizes how they are.

I agree, which is why I paid off his 94o

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