Deep into a MTT on Full Tilt NLHE ~20 left

Seat 1: Seat 1 (309,519)
Seat 3: Seat 3 (326,906)
Seat 4: Villain 2 (209,776)
Seat 5: Seat 5 (130,810)
Seat 6: Seat 6 (121,753)
Seat 7: Hero (200,423)
Seat 8: Seat 8 (329,746)
Seat 9: Villain 1 (113,030)
Seat 1 antes 1,000
Seat 3 antes 1,000
Villain 2 antes 1,000
Seat 5 antes 1,000
Seat 6 antes 1,000
Hero antes 1,000
Seat 8 antes 1,000
Villain 1 antes 1,000
Seat 6 posts the small blind of 4,000
Hero posts the big blind of 8,000
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [ ]
Seat 8 folds
Villain 1 raises to 24,000
Seat 1 folds
Seat 3 folds
Villain 2 calls 24,000
Seat 5 folds
Seat 6 folds

Alright- I already understand most people will say "....fold preflop"
I reason a little differently-
I don't have many reads on the table maybe 6-7 hands. Played with half of the table before it combined but not with either villain.
Every hand has been a raise or a push all in with the blinds folding.
I see it as ~25% to win if i speculate as long as neither villain has a pocket pair, and pot odds are 4.25 to call.

after going back and running numbers, poker stove puts it at-

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.360% 34.54% 01.83% 654136227628 34568391628.34 { random }
Hand 1: 36.360% 34.54% 01.83% 654136227628 34568391628.34 { random }
Hand 2: 27.279% 25.80% 01.48% 488596188936 28102449751.33 { 5d3d }

i'm figuring I'm looking at A face and A face or at least I'm hoping.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.395% 02.54% 26.85% 34874 368061.67 { AcKh }
Hand 1: 31.150% 04.30% 26.85% 58926 368061.67 { AdKd }
Hand 2: 39.455% 39.26% 00.19% 538167 2663.67 { 5d3d }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 22.818% 21.22% 01.60% 290891 21889.83 { AcQh }
Hand 1: 46.632% 45.04% 01.60% 617324 21889.83 { AdKd }
Hand 2: 30.550% 30.39% 00.16% 416518 2241.33 { 5d3d }

If its a pair, I'm a dog.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 72.011% 71.53% 00.48% 980533 6559.00 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 07.745% 07.27% 00.48% 99604 6559.00 { AhKs }
Hand 2: 20.244% 20.13% 00.11% 276000 1499.00 { 5d3d }


Hero calls 16,000
*** FLOP *** [ : ]
Hero checks
Villain 1 bets 88,030, and is all in
Villain 2 folds

At this point I have to decide if i believe he has Ax or pockets.
I don't believe any card on the board helped the villain.
I could see this Villain pushing AK/AQ with the short stack, but then again also with QQ- AA
I don't see 88-JJ. would believe an all in pre flop push with these hands, you don't want to get out flopped.
i don't believe a raise with 22 or 33 from +1UTG.
I really don't see a set. I think with such an uncoordinated board, it would be better to slow play a set.
I'm figuring it could go either way. either he has Ax or he has pockets. I making this one a coin flip. 50/50

pot odds at this point = 2:1

Board: 2s 3h 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.949% 24.95% 00.00% 247 0.00 { AdKd }
Hand 1: 75.051% 75.05% 00.00% 743 0.00 { 5d3d }

Board: 2s 3h 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.725% 34.37% 01.36% 367781 14542.00 { random }
Hand 1: 64.275% 62.92% 01.36% 673325 14542.00 { 5d3d }

I'm a dog if he has a pair but not a huge dog compared to pot odds. when i was doing the quick math in my head i put it closer to 18-20% if he had pockets

Board: 2s 3h 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 76.869% 76.87% 00.00% 761 0.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 23.131% 23.13% 00.00% 229 0.00 { 5d3d }


Hero calls 88,030
*** TURN *** []
*** RIVER *** []
***BOARD***[ ]

Does anyone else make this call?
Does anyone agree with my reasoning or is it fubar?
just wondering what everyone else thinks of my line?

if you think they may be raising light, squeeze. But i dont like the call OOP. You dont have the stack for it, your getting down to about 20 bb's. raise or fold imo

there is no way i can raise vs 2 villains with my holdings.

then fold, theres no way you can flat with your stack

Raise > fold > call

Originally Posted by tightagressive

Why not? Raising is way better than calling here. Calling preflop is horrible in this spot.

Furthermore your maths are wrong and I don't think you thought of any of them any time during the hand. I think you called preflop because you were suited, and I think you called on the flop because you "put someone on ace king."

making the play is one thing, and trying to justify it is even worse. It's -EV for sure sorry

why is raising better than calling? if i'm believing one of the villains has AK/AQ then i'm sure to get called down by one of them, thus meaning i have to go to showdown when i really want to see a flop. If i hit a pair and i'm right about the AK/AQ, then i'm making the call. If the flop comes up A,K,Q, its easy to get away from the hand unless i hit two pair or a flush draw.

just out of curiosity, what math is wrong? i calculate the pot odds when i play and the 4.25:1 i believe is correct. i don't have a hud or run any calculators when i play, so i average what i believe my chances are and go back and check with poker stove when i question my own play, such as the case here.

you are right though, i did call because i did put the villain on AK.

Originally Posted by classickred

your math is wrong because you're using pokerstove incorrectly. you're meant to gauge your odds against a range of hands for an opponent to have; in every example you put one single hand in and did your analysis.

i literally laughed out loud when I read:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.395% 02.54% 26.85% 34874 368061.67 { AcKh }
Hand 1: 31.150% 04.30% 26.85% 58926 368061.67 { AdKd }
Hand 2: 39.455% 39.26% 00.19% 538167 2663.67 { 5d3d }

both your opponents have the same hand? you're really reading their souls, dude

i didn't know you could put a range of hands into pokerstove. thanks for the advice.

when i ran the simulations, i used 4 hands that the villains could of had and figured that these were the better hands and that these hands would cover most other situations when the simulations ran. like i said in a previous post, i ran these simulations after i played the hand so i didn't think that AK/AK simulation was that far of a stretch and should be included. i also ran 3 other preflop simulations and figured i had my bases covered.

here is the simulations for the top 20% of hands....i believe that's bringing the slider at the bottom to 20%.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.917% 35.53% 01.39% 110711778584 4322633270.67 { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+ }
Hand 1: 36.917% 35.53% 01.39% 110711778584 4322633270.67 { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+ }
Hand 2: 26.165% 25.99% 00.17% 80999925000 531050570.67 { 53s }

i also ran 99, 1010, jj, qq, kk, aa ak-at, kq-k10, qj-j10 suited and unsuited-

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.915% 34.11% 01.80% 57760023879 3047996206.00 { 99+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1: 35.729% 33.93% 01.80% 57445510815 3047996206.00 { 99+, AcKc, AQs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 28.355% 28.20% 00.15% 47752354848 256169110.00 { 53s }

does this help with the math? i'm still getting ~26-28% with this range of hands to make a 4.25:1 (19%) call.

here's another range narrowed and added all pairs to villain 2

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.423% 38.73% 01.70% 8382176487 367076769.00 { 88+, ATs+, KQs, ATo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 35.228% 33.49% 01.73% 7249689810 375100368.00 { 22+, ATs+, KQs, ATo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 24.349% 24.17% 00.18% 5231733621 38428605.00 { 5d3d }