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Go Back PokerForums.org > Strategy Discussion > SNG & MTT Hand Analysis > MTT AQ: value bet how much?

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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 05-16-2008, 12:01 PM
OrionPro's Avatar
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Default AQ: value bet how much?

Villian plays any two, vpip 80%

How much to bet on river (and yes I bet the turn too small imo)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP1 (t2450)
MP2 (t2630)
MP3 (t3405)
Hero (t3100)
Button (t10040)
SB (t3200)
BB (t2730)
UTG (t2940)
UTG+1 (t2525)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, Q.
5 folds, Hero raises to t90, Button calls t90, 2 folds.

Flop: (t225) 9, A, J (2 players)
Hero bets t180, Button calls t180.

Turn: (t585) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets t300, Button calls t300.

River: (t1185) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets ?
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Last edited by OrionPro; 05-16-2008 at 12:04 PM.
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Old 05-16-2008, 12:36 PM
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799
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Old 05-16-2008, 12:59 PM
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He had A2, suppose we knew it, how much do you think we could extract? How often is he calling a shove versus a vbet?
(given his stack, I think he's always calling a bet less than 1000 chips, so let's say we bet 900 and he always calls that. That means for shoving to be preferable he has to call the shove about 40% of the time).
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Old 05-17-2008, 07:09 AM
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I was gonna say 700.
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Old 05-17-2008, 10:34 AM
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vs this kind of villain why would you only bet 700/800? if villain has an ace and is going to call 700 chips, hes going to call more. look at the board. theres tons of missed draws and he probably thinks his kicker doesn't matter some of the time.
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Old 05-17-2008, 10:38 AM
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Originally Posted by tightagressive View Post
vs this kind of villain why would you only bet 700/800? if villain has an ace and is going to call 700 chips, hes going to call more. look at the board. theres tons of missed draws and he probably thinks his kicker doesn't matter some of the time.
so would you shove, or make a bet close to a shove (suspicious?). I'm sure he calls ~1000 or slightly below 100% of the time with A2, but I'm not sure how that changes with a larger bet.
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Old 05-17-2008, 10:45 AM
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If I'm leaning towards him having a jack or maybe a small pair I'm leaning towards about 800. If I think he's got an ace I'd most likely push. Since he's obviously tough to read I'd probably bet the 800.

Another train of thought would be to bet about 300-400 in hopes he reads you as weak and pushes himself.
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Old 05-18-2008, 03:33 PM
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any value to a c/r?

I'm a tourney donk so that could be a retarded question, but w/e...
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Old 05-18-2008, 03:50 PM
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Originally Posted by davidab157 View Post
any value to a c/r?

I'm a tourney donk so that could be a retarded question, but w/e...
Villain with a VPIP of 80 and a line like this is probably a passive station idiot, I doubt he bluffs with missed flush draws etc.
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Old 05-18-2008, 04:18 PM
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yes he'll check behind like 90% of the time and even if he doesn't, there's no guarantee he will call a shove. Also, this is assuming we know what he has, if he has weaker than any ace, the probability he calls a shove is really zero.
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