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How much to bet on river (and yes I bet the turn too small imo)
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
MP1 (t2450)
MP2 (t2630)
MP3 (t3405)
Hero (t3100)
Button (t10040)
SB (t3200)
BB (t2730)
UTG (t2940)
UTG+1 (t2525)
Preflop: Hero is CO with A, Q
.
5 folds, Hero raises to t90, Button calls t90, 2 folds.
Flop: (t225) 9, J
Hero bets t180, Button calls t180.
Turn: (t585) 9
Hero bets t300, Button calls t300.
River: (t1185) 6(2 players)
Hero bets ?
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Thread: AQ: value bet how much?
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05-16-2008 #1Stu Ungar
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AQ: value bet how much?
Last edited by OrionPro; 05-16-2008 at 12:04 PM.
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05-16-2008 #2Mike McDermott
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799
idkmybffjill?
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05-16-2008 #3Stu Ungar
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He had A2, suppose we knew it, how much do you think we could extract? How often is he calling a shove versus a vbet?
(given his stack, I think he's always calling a bet less than 1000 chips, so let's say we bet 900 and he always calls that. That means for shoving to be preferable he has to call the shove about 40% of the time).Last edited by OrionPro; 05-16-2008 at 01:08 PM.
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05-17-2008 #4Staff News Poster
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05-17-2008 #5Mike McDermott
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vs this kind of villain why would you only bet 700/800? if villain has an ace and is going to call 700 chips, hes going to call more. look at the board. theres tons of missed draws and he probably thinks his kicker doesn't matter some of the time.
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05-17-2008 #6Stu Ungar
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so would you shove, or make a bet close to a shove (suspicious?). I'm sure he calls ~1000 or slightly below 100% of the time with A2, but I'm not sure how that changes with a larger bet.
Originally Posted by tightagressive
Last edited by OrionPro; 05-17-2008 at 10:40 AM.
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05-17-2008 #7(Formerly Steve-O)
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If I'm leaning towards him having a jack or maybe a small pair I'm leaning towards about 800. If I think he's got an ace I'd most likely push. Since he's obviously tough to read I'd probably bet the 800.
Another train of thought would be to bet about 300-400 in hopes he reads you as weak and pushes himself.Read my musings on poker and life at Online Poker Examiner, Poker Examiner, PokerNewsBoy.com, and My Poker Blog
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05-18-2008 #8Super Moderator
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any value to a c/r?
I'm a tourney donk so that could be a retarded question, but w/e...For Free Money, Rakeback and some 6x Ongame bonuses, I recommend PokerSource.
I recommend Cardrunners for superb poker coaching. It was honestly the single biggest improvement in my game signing up there! Sign-up fee might seem steep, but it pays itself back within weeks.
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05-18-2008 #9Staff News Poster
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Villain with a VPIP of 80 and a line like this is probably a passive station idiot, I doubt he bluffs with missed flush draws etc. Originally Posted by davidab157
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05-18-2008 #10Stu Ungar
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yes he'll check behind like 90% of the time and even if he doesn't, there's no guarantee he will call a shove. Also, this is assuming we know what he has, if he has weaker than any ace, the probability he calls a shove is really zero.
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