Villian plays any two, vpip 80%
How much to bet on river (and yes I bet the turn too small imo)
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
MP1 (t2450)
MP2 (t2630)
MP3 (t3405)
Hero (t3100)
Button (t10040)
SB (t3200)
BB (t2730)
UTG (t2940)
UTG+1 (t2525)
Preflop: Hero is CO with A, Q
.
5 folds, Hero raises to t90, Button calls t90, 2 folds.
Flop: (t225) 9, A
, J
(2 players)
Hero bets t180, Button calls t180.
Turn: (t585) 9(2 players)
Hero bets t300, Button calls t300.
River: (t1185) 6(2 players)
Hero bets ?
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Thread: AQ: value bet how much?
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05-16-2008 #1
AQ: value bet how much?
Last edited by OrionPro; 05-16-2008 at 12:04 PM.
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05-16-2008 #2Mike McDermott
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05-16-2008 #3
He had A2, suppose we knew it, how much do you think we could extract? How often is he calling a shove versus a vbet?
(given his stack, I think he's always calling a bet less than 1000 chips, so let's say we bet 900 and he always calls that. That means for shoving to be preferable he has to call the shove about 40% of the time).Last edited by OrionPro; 05-16-2008 at 01:08 PM.
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05-17-2008 #4
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05-17-2008 #5
vs this kind of villain why would you only bet 700/800? if villain has an ace and is going to call 700 chips, hes going to call more. look at the board. theres tons of missed draws and he probably thinks his kicker doesn't matter some of the time.
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05-17-2008 #6
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05-17-2008 #7
If I'm leaning towards him having a jack or maybe a small pair I'm leaning towards about 800. If I think he's got an ace I'd most likely push. Since he's obviously tough to read I'd probably bet the 800.
Another train of thought would be to bet about 300-400 in hopes he reads you as weak and pushes himself.Read my musings on poker and life at Online Poker Examiner, Poker Examiner, PokerNewsBoy.com, and My Poker Blog
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05-18-2008 #8
any value to a c/r?
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05-18-2008 #9
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05-18-2008 #10
yes he'll check behind like 90% of the time and even if he doesn't, there's no guarantee he will call a shove. Also, this is assuming we know what he has, if he has weaker than any ace, the probability he calls a shove is really zero.
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