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05-16-2008, 12:01 PM
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Stu Ungar
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Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 2,430
Limits Played: $1-$2 NL
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AQ: value bet how much?
Villian plays any two, vpip 80%
How much to bet on river (and yes I bet the turn too small imo)
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
MP1 (t2450)
MP2 (t2630)
MP3 (t3405)
Hero (t3100)
Button (t10040)
SB (t3200)
BB (t2730)
UTG (t2940)
UTG+1 (t2525)
Preflop: Hero is CO with A  , Q  .
5 folds, Hero raises to t90, Button calls t90, 2 folds.
Flop: (t225) 9 , A  , J (2 players)
Hero bets t180, Button calls t180.
Turn: (t585) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets t300, Button calls t300.
River: (t1185) 6  (2 players)
Hero bets ?
Last edited by OrionPro; 05-16-2008 at 12:04 PM.
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05-16-2008, 12:36 PM
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Stu Ungar
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Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Brunson, Amarillo, Crandall? Do I need to say more.
Posts: 2,876
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799
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Quote:
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1k 2k 3k 4k 5k 6k 7k 8k 9k 10k 11k 12k 13k 14k 15k 16k 17k 18k 19k 20k
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05-16-2008, 12:59 PM
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Stu Ungar
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Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 2,430
Limits Played: $1-$2 NL
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He had A2, suppose we knew it, how much do you think we could extract? How often is he calling a shove versus a vbet?
(given his stack, I think he's always calling a bet less than 1000 chips, so let's say we bet 900 and he always calls that. That means for shoving to be preferable he has to call the shove about 40% of the time).
Last edited by OrionPro; 05-16-2008 at 01:08 PM.
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05-17-2008, 07:09 AM
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Stu Ungar
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Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: London
Posts: 2,670
Limits Played: $0.05-$0.10 NL
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I was gonna say 700.
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05-17-2008, 10:34 AM
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Stu Ungar
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Michigan
Posts: 2,995
Limits Played: Play Money
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vs this kind of villain why would you only bet 700/800? if villain has an ace and is going to call 700 chips, hes going to call more. look at the board. theres tons of missed draws and he probably thinks his kicker doesn't matter some of the time.
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05-17-2008, 10:38 AM
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Stu Ungar
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Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 2,430
Limits Played: $1-$2 NL
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tightagressive
vs this kind of villain why would you only bet 700/800? if villain has an ace and is going to call 700 chips, hes going to call more. look at the board. theres tons of missed draws and he probably thinks his kicker doesn't matter some of the time.
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so would you shove, or make a bet close to a shove (suspicious?). I'm sure he calls ~1000 or slightly below 100% of the time with A2, but I'm not sure how that changes with a larger bet.
Last edited by OrionPro; 05-17-2008 at 10:40 AM.
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05-17-2008, 10:45 AM
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I donk off Wota's $$$
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 5,215
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If I'm leaning towards him having a jack or maybe a small pair I'm leaning towards about 800. If I think he's got an ace I'd most likely push. Since he's obviously tough to read I'd probably bet the 800.
Another train of thought would be to bet about 300-400 in hopes he reads you as weak and pushes himself.
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05-18-2008, 03:33 PM
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Super Moderator
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Nottingham, UK
Posts: 6,107
Limits Played: $0.50-$1 NL
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any value to a c/r?
I'm a tourney donk so that could be a retarded question, but w/e...
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05-18-2008, 03:50 PM
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Stu Ungar
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Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: London
Posts: 2,670
Limits Played: $0.05-$0.10 NL
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Quote:
Originally Posted by davidab157
any value to a c/r?
I'm a tourney donk so that could be a retarded question, but w/e...
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Villain with a VPIP of 80 and a line like this is probably a passive station idiot, I doubt he bluffs with missed flush draws etc.
__________________
For poker, casino and sports betting news visit http://www.onlinecasinonews.com. They have a writer on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays who is immensely talented at everything he does.
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05-18-2008, 04:18 PM
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Stu Ungar
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Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 2,430
Limits Played: $1-$2 NL
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yes he'll check behind like 90% of the time and even if he doesn't, there's no guarantee he will call a shove. Also, this is assuming we know what he has, if he has weaker than any ace, the probability he calls a shove is really zero.
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