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  1. #1
    Stu Ungar triple-t's Avatar
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    Default First Hand of a SnG

    I'm normally a nit early on in a SnG, but I've been experimenting with loosening up a little, especially when the odds are right. So anyway, no reads on any opponents.

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

    Button (t1500)
    SB (t1500)
    BB (t1500)
    UTG (t1500)
    UTG+1 (t1500)
    MP1 (t1500)
    MP2 (t1500)
    MP3 (t1500)
    Hero (t1500)

    Preflop: Hero is CO with 5, 6.
    2 folds, MP1 calls t20, 1 fold, MP3 calls t20, Hero calls t20, 1 fold, SB raises to t40, 1 fold, MP1 calls t20, MP3 calls t20, Hero calls t20.
    OK, I'm getting 3.5 to 1 odds on the call with good position in the CO. Therefore, I'll see a flop with suited connectors. Before my loosening up experiment, these would have been auto-mucked. I call the donk-raise due to 8 to 1 odds. A no-brainer.

    Flop: (t180) J, 6, 9 (4 players)
    SB bets t220, MP1 folds, MP3 calls t220, Hero ?????

    I think this is a good flop for me. Bottom Pair with a FD. SB overbets the pot, though since this is a $1.20 SnG, it could mean anything. I'm getting almost 3 to 1 odds to call (620 in the pot, 220 to call). I have 14 outs to 2 pair or better, which is 29.8% on the turn. So anyway, the odds are there to call.

    The math says to call so are we calling or are we conserving our chips and folding?
    I study at KRE8R's School of Bankroll Management.

    If you IM me looking for money or a trade, you will be blocked.

  2. #2
    Staff News Poster MJPerry's Avatar
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    Default

    Miniraising and overbets are the signs of a TAG Grinder, fold.

    I call it for sure.

  3. #3
    piv
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    Stu Ungar piv's Avatar
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    Default

    Folllllllllllllllllllld. What do you plan on doing on the turn? Committing your entire stack + all equity in the sng on a dodgy draw.

    edit: sorry you're in CO. still aren't getting the odds with speculative hands in sngs.

  4. #4
    Staff News Poster MJPerry's Avatar
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    I call, the only thing I see him concievably betting with that beats us is ahxh

  5. #5
    Stu Ungar triple-t's Avatar
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    Default

    This is one of those spot where either play could be considered correct. Yes, we have to correct expressed odds to make the call, but, what about reverse implied odds? Our flush wouldn't be the nuts and it's very possible one of the two opponents has a better draw. And even if he doesn't have two hearts, he could have 1 heart that can beat me on the river. Also, two pair (and trips) can get outdrawn easily as well, but not as often as the flush.

    For calling, I'm fairly confident that the hands I'm drawing to will beat SB. What makes a slight overbet on this flop? Sets will usually slowplay (remember the stakes), a flush draw usually checks or makes a probe sized bet. Two pair might make the bet and an overpair probably would. But which 2 pair would make that bet? J9? Even at these stakes, J9 doesn't raise much out of the SB. I think our most likely hands for SB is top pair or an overpair.

    What about MP3? Flush draw? Perhaps. Overcards? Maybe. Top Pair? I think he's raising with top pair and a good kicker. Basically, I think here that if we hit one of our 14 outs, we will be ahead of the other two, but still vulnerable.

    Also, I feel that I am a better player than most in these micro-SnGs, so I don't mind calling another 220 chips on a 14 out draw. If I miss and have to face a much bigger bet on the turn, I'm folding.

    So anyway, I called the bet. Turn is the (giving me 2 pair and a flush draw). SB pushes his last 1240 chips in the middle. MP3 calls. What are we doing here?
    I study at KRE8R's School of Bankroll Management.

    If you IM me looking for money or a trade, you will be blocked.

  6. #6
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    Default

    call

  7. #7
    Stu Ungar triple-t's Avatar
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by mister.x View Post
    call
    why?
    I study at KRE8R's School of Bankroll Management.

    If you IM me looking for money or a trade, you will be blocked.

  8. #8
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    because I think you have the best hand here right now
    I think somebody has an overpair and the other has top pair

    I doubt somebody else has a better 2 pair. If somebody has a flush draw, well, they have less chance hitting since you are holding 2 cards of that suit already. If he has a better 2 pair, you still got a decent number of outs to improve to a flush / full house.

    The weak raise preflop and huge bet on the flop suggest maybe a donk trapping with aces now shitting in his pants. Trying to protect his hand. A set of 6's or 5's is now very unlikely since you are holding these 2 cards.

    The only hand that is dangerous is pocket jacks and pocket 9's. But that, they have 0.90% chances of having it. If he did have pocket J's, why the push on the turn ? Or if the other one has it, well, why flat call with a set on the flop when a potential danger of a flush draw or str8 draw (Q-10)

    If either one of them has Qh-10h, he can beat you with a str8 or a flush. We know his flush is less likely to hit and has 17% chances of hitting his str8, one card to come.

  9. #9
    Stu Ungar triple-t's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mister.x View Post
    because I think you have the best hand here right now
    I think somebody has an overpair and the other has top pair
    Very good deduction. SB had AA, MP3 had J8s. River was a queen. Ship it.
    I study at KRE8R's School of Bankroll Management.

    If you IM me looking for money or a trade, you will be blocked.

  10. #10
    Staff News Poster MJPerry's Avatar
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    Nice read, x.

    I'm calling the shove, because a 5, 6 or heart wins it methinks and also I think sixes up could well be the best hand there too.

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