99: Instapush in Satellite with M=3?

**OrionPro** · 06-03-2007

This looks like a trivial push, although I have no fold equity here.

Can we find a better spot later? 80 people left, >40 get paid, so we're relatively deep already.

PokerStars Game #10248330817: Tournament #51449940, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level XIII (1500/3000) - 2007/06/03 - 11:18:59 (ET)
Table '51449940 26' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Hand History Converter from Poker-Theory.org

Seat 1: mwnn (40805 in chips)
Seat 2: OrionPro (15415 in chips)
Seat 3: Civiliokas (7310 in chips)
Seat 4: MARFE (18610 in chips)
Seat 5: lugsiano (10930 in chips)
Seat 6: dzinr (12090 in chips)
Seat 7: Nicolai (13415 in chips)
Seat 8: ebisumaru (20325 in chips)
Seat 9: coolhandluck (8630 in chips)
mwnn: posts the ante 150
OrionPro: posts the ante 150
Civiliokas: posts the ante 150
MARFE: posts the ante 150
lugsiano: posts the ante 150
dzinr: posts the ante 150
Nicolai: posts the ante 150
ebisumaru: posts the ante 150
coolhandluck: posts the ante 150
MARFE: posts small blind 1500
lugsiano: posts big blind 3000

*** PREFLOP ***
Dealt to OrionPro

dzinr: folds
Nicolai: folds
ebisumaru: folds
coolhandluck: folds
mwnn: raises 3000 to 6000
OrionPro: raises 9265 to 15265 and is all-in
Civiliokas: folds
MARFE: folds
lugsiano: folds
mwnn: calls 9265

*** FLOP ***

*** TURN ***

*** RIVER ***

*** SHOW DOWN ***
mwnn: shows

OrionPro: shows

mwnn collected 36380 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 36380 | Rake 0

**SeanyBullets1** · 06-03-2007

Here's the problem in this spot...the only stack you don't cripple is the one making the raise. Still, I think this is a pretty clear-cut push.

**WotaWaster** · 06-03-2007

Disclaimer: I am bad at tournies

Unless the big stack is literally raising almost every hand I think I'd fold JJ here.
I don't think you really have any fold equity so we are going to have to win a showdown with 99 and alot of the time he will have 2 overs.
The way the table is set up you have the best spot by far with the big stack directly before you. On over 50% of the hands you play if the big stack has folded all the players after you really cannot call your shove without a monster since you cover all but 1 of them. I'd rather wait till the big stacks out of a hand and push any 2 with 1st in vigorish than push here.

**SeanyBullets1** · 06-03-2007

You may not find a better spot than this to get it in with a solid hand. In tournamentd you can't afford to give up any positive EV.

**WotaWaster** · 06-03-2007

Seanny.

I gave him a range of 30%: Any ace, any pair, any 2 cards higher than T and a load of suited connectors.
We have 60% equity against this range.

Does doubling up here increase our chances of a place enough given that we know we will be assured of not making a place 40% of the time?

**SeanyBullets1** · 06-03-2007

You should be willing, and happy, to take a 60/40 every chance you get in a big MTT.

**SeanyBullets1** · 06-03-2007

Originally Posted by WotaWaster

Seanny.

I gave him a range of 30%: Any ace, any pair, any 2 cards higher than T and a load of suited connectors.
We have 60% equity against this range.

Does doubling up here increase our chances of a place enough given that we know we will be assured of not making a place 40% of the time?

Also, look at our M. It's at 3. I'd rather get it in as a 60/40 or 50/50 then push ATC and watch people call my push with A8, A7, KJ, and all sorts of that crap.

**OrionPro** · 06-03-2007

Originally Posted by SeanyBullets1

You should be willing, and happy, to take a 60/40 every chance you get in a big MTT.

Well it was a satellite, so it's survival only. Still, I have to survive at least a couple of orbits, the stack is definitely not big enough to fold myself ITM. Even though people stall at this stage, I'd estimate I have to outlast 3-4 orbits or more.

**OrionPro** · 06-03-2007

Originally Posted by WotaWaster

Disclaimer: I am bad at tournies

Unless the big stack is literally raising almost every hand I think I'd fold JJ here.
I don't think you really have any fold equity so we are going to have to win a showdown with 99 and alot of the time he will have 2 overs.
The way the table is set up you have the best spot by far with the big stack directly before you.

Imo it is just average, not better or worse than other spots. The "big stack on your right is good" idea imo applies mostly when stacks have an M of 5 and higher. Don't forget the next time I pay the blinds, it's almost an auto-call with any two cards, the pot will prolly be about 8000 chips at that point (turbo tournament)

I'm sure the shove was +$EV, but I wonder if there's a better alternative, like folding or call- pushing.

**SeanyBullets1** · 06-03-2007

Problem with call-pushing is the all overcard flop that is sure to come

. Even less equity then.

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