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Thread: Call This?

  1. #1
    Poker Expert wastrel's Avatar
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    Default Call This?

    Neither villain was very agg PF, running near 25/5 stats for both after 30 or so hands.

    I really question my call here.

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (9 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

    saw flop|saw showdown

    CO (t7592)
    Button (t2613)
    SB (t7500)
    wastrel (t17576)
    UTG (t7540)
    UTG+1 (t20010)
    MP1 (t2866)
    MP2 (t12255)
    MP3 (t3625)

    Preflop: wastrel is BB with , .
    3 folds, MP2 calls t600, 1 fold, CO raises to t7542, Button calls t2563 (All-In), 1 fold, wastrel raises to t17526, MP2 folds.

    Flop: (t28581) , , (3 players, 1 all-in)

    Turn: (t28581) (3 players, 1 all-in)

    River: (t28581) (3 players, 1 all-in)

    Final Pot: t28581

    Results in white below:
    wastrel has Td Tc (two pair, tens and fours).
    CO has Ks Ac (one pair, fours).
    Button has Qd Ad (one pair, fours).
    Outcome: wastrel wins t28581.
    If you are one in a million, there's eight just like you in Manhattan.

  2. #2
    Mike McDermott gder03's Avatar
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    Default

    tough spot, you have limp, raise, call in front of you.

    That said; the limp is not a strong play.
    The raise is strong (prolly 66+, AJ+)
    the all in call behind is average (22+, KT+)

    all you are worried about is; the CO b/c he has a real stack, you are assuming the UTG limper will fold after you raise. (and if he limped AA or KK, well hats off to him).

    So IMO this is fairly easy all in, especially since you can afford to be behind here. I think more often then not you will be in a race situation.

    Overall I take exact same line as you, and I dont think at all. If i had 99, I would prolly muck, but psychologically TT is way better so I insta push.

    Other thaught would be good b/c I am not a very good MTT player.
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  3. #3
    Super Moderator davidab157's Avatar
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    Default

    What stage of the tourney are we at? Is it bubbling any time soon?

    I make the call anyway though. It's tough but I think the CO has a wide range here (I'd give him 44+, A8+, maybe even KQ/KJ) and as gder says it doesn't cripple you to play this and lose. You are the better side of a flip alot of the time here.

    My pokerstove analysis says you're 60% against that range, I call.
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  4. #4
    Fish Food
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    Default

    yeah i call

  5. #5
    Mike McDermott
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    Default

    I realize those stats don't mean a whole lot with the really small sample size but I believe you guys are making his range too wide. He's 25/5 which means he plays very straightforward poker. He limps with his suited connectors, paint cards, and raises his pairs and big broadway.

    I don't see his range being wider than 88+, AJs+, AQo, AKo, KQs. You're a slight dog to that range (51/48).

    The really short stack calling all-in doesn't change much except increase the money you get on your call. You can only hope his cards conflict with your opponent's.

    I don't think you can be faulted here for folding based purely on ranges as this is a marginal spot, IMO.

    However, in terms of the pot and stack sizes, I definitely fold this. You're not even getting 2:1 on your money and you're probably not way ahead. It costs you almost 8K to see a pot of 11K. The risk greatly outweighs the reward.
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  6. #6
    Poker Expert wastrel's Avatar
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by davidab157 View Post
    What stage of the tourney are we at? Is it bubbling any time soon?
    IIRC we are just before the bubble. I think 198 spots paid and we are at 230 or so left.
    If you are one in a million, there's eight just like you in Manhattan.

  7. #7
    Poker Expert wastrel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SeanyBullets1 View Post
    I realize those stats don't mean a whole lot with the really small sample size but I believe you guys are making his range too wide. He's 25/5 which means he plays very straightforward poker. He limps with his suited connectors, paint cards, and raises his pairs and big broadway.

    I don't see his range being wider than 88+, AJs+, AQo, AKo, KQs. You're a slight dog to that range (51/48).

    The really short stack calling all-in doesn't change much except increase the money you get on your call. You can only hope his cards conflict with your opponent's.

    I don't think you can be faulted here for folding based purely on ranges as this is a marginal spot, IMO.

    However, in terms of the pot and stack sizes, I definitely fold this. You're not even getting 2:1 on your money and you're probably not way ahead. It costs you almost 8K to see a pot of 11K. The risk greatly outweighs the reward.
    This is exactly why I question my play. I really don't think I'm ahead enough times to justify this.
    If you are one in a million, there's eight just like you in Manhattan.

  8. #8
    Stu Ungar Mr.McJ's Avatar
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    I like the isolation raise here. If CO had JJ+, would he really shove? I doubt it. We're probably flipping a coin with him and we could even be dominating his 66-99. We're getting almost 2 to 1 and even if we lose, we're still very much alive.
    I think I'm going to give up playing poker.........and take up repeatedly hitting myself in the nuts

  9. #9
    Mike McDermott
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr.McJ View Post
    I like the isolation raise here. If CO had JJ+, would he really shove? I doubt it.
    I reckon you get a lot of players who will shove JJ/QQ in this spot for fear of committing a lot of chips and seeing a K or A flop. Plus with 1500 + antes already in the pot I don't think shoving JJ/QQ is bad here at all.

    Against a strong field I call here looking to gamble but if the field is weak and I feel I can outplay people post flop then I fold.

  10. #10
    Stu Ungar Mr.McJ's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jharding666 View Post
    I reckon you get a lot of players who will shove JJ/QQ in this spot for fear of committing a lot of chips and seeing a K or A flop. Plus with 1500 + antes already in the pot I don't think shoving JJ/QQ is bad here at all.

    Against a strong field I call here looking to gamble but if the field is weak and I feel I can outplay people post flop then I fold.
    IMHO you're going to run into AK/AQ/AJ/77-99 enough to justify the play. This is a good spot to pick up a lot of chips heading into the money and if we lose, we we're still sitting ok.
    I think I'm going to give up playing poker.........and take up repeatedly hitting myself in the nuts

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