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  1. #1
    Stu Ungar Mr.McJ's Avatar
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    Default 33 vs a Compulsive Short Stack: Crafty Little Play or -EV?

    Over the last week or so, I've seen this villain at a number of different tables and everytime I've seen him, he's been short stacked. He just bought in now and posted the BB so obviously he's the kind of player who likes to buy in short. So I figure his raise here is a steal and decided to put him all in. It's likely that the villain would make this raise with a hand like 44-JJ (QQ+ I figure he'd make a smaller raise) but it's also possible that he'd do it with a wide range of hands (suited connectors, any 2 broadway cards, etc.)

    So what do you think?



    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed)

    BB ($22)
    UTG ($99.50)
    UTG+1 ($61)
    MP1 ($162.45)
    MP2 ($155.25)
    CO ($104.85)
    Button ($90.40)
    Hero ($96.95)

    Preflop: Hero is SB with , .
    2 folds, MP1 calls $1, MP2 calls $1, 2 folds, Hero completes, BB raises to $8, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, Hero raises to $22.5, BB folds.

    Final Pot: $32.50

    Results in white below:
    No showdown. Hero wins $32.50.
    I think I'm going to give up playing poker.........and take up repeatedly hitting myself in the nuts

  2. #2
    Mike McDermott
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    Default

    I don't like this play because from my experience players who buy in cheap on cash tables look for this sort of situation, an all in PF, to potentially double them up quickly. They'll be so eager to get their money in with a marginal hand that you can wait for a better chance than this, and just hope nobody else gets his money first.

    Considering he's getting over 2-1 on his money, he must have been on a complete steal to fold here!

  3. #3
    Stu Ungar Mr.McJ's Avatar
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by jharding666 View Post
    I don't like this play because from my experience players who buy in cheap on cash tables look for this sort of situation, an all in PF, to potentially double them up quickly. They'll be so eager to get their money in with a marginal hand that you can wait for a better chance than this, and just hope nobody else gets his money first.

    Considering he's getting over 2-1 on his money, he must have been on a complete steal to fold here!
    But if he has something like KQ, I'm more than happy to get all in PF since Im a slight favourite. The only thing I need to fear is a bigger pair. So I guess what I'm asking is does he have a higher pair here most of the time, making this a bad move, or is his range going to be wide enough that the shove is profitable?
    I think I'm going to give up playing poker.........and take up repeatedly hitting myself in the nuts

  4. #4
    Super Moderator WotaWaster's Avatar
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    Default

    I don't like it because I put your fold equity as basically zero and the chance of him having 22/2x/3x as very slim. However he folded so what do I know?

  5. #5
    Stu Ungar Mr.McJ's Avatar
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    Default

    Hmmm....
    I just checked his range in stove and it looks like I wasn't as good as I thought.

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 42.523% 41.81% 00.71% 1000874580 17052318.00 { 33 }
    Hand 1: 57.477% 56.76% 00.71% 1358821776 17052318.00 { 22+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
    I think I'm going to give up playing poker.........and take up repeatedly hitting myself in the nuts

  6. #6
    Super Moderator WotaWaster's Avatar
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    The biggest problem of all is your actually an underdog to a lot of pretty poor hands like JTo/75s etc which SHOULD have felt pot commited here.

  7. #7
    Mike McDermott
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr.McJ View Post
    But if he has something like KQ, I'm more than happy to get all in PF since Im a slight favourite.

    The only thing I need to fear is a bigger pair. So I guess what I'm asking is does he have a higher pair here most of the time, making this a bad move, or is his range going to be wide enough that the shove is profitable?
    Fair enough, you have a different approach to the cash game than me obviously then. I don't think that he needs to have an overpair much of the time for this to be -EV. Like wota said, there are a lot of other hands that are favourites.

  8. #8
    Mike McDermott gder03's Avatar
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    me likes it alot
    I get more ass than a toilet seat. All shapes/colors/sizes.

    caution:
    http://girlvideos.blogspot.com/

  9. #9
    Mike McDermott gder03's Avatar
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    possibly b/c my only goal in poker is to bust short stacked assholes.
    I get more ass than a toilet seat. All shapes/colors/sizes.

    caution:
    http://girlvideos.blogspot.com/

  10. #10
    Super Moderator davidab157's Avatar
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    I like the theory but the main problem IMO is he's priced in to call and should've called with a huge range here. If he's gonna go in shortstack and stick in a big raise he is surely committing himself (apparently not here though, ).

    If he goes to about $4-5 I don't mind a push, though I'd rather higher (hopefully live) cards to do it with.
    For Free Money, Rakeback and some 6x Ongame bonuses, I recommend PokerSource.

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