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  1. #1
    Stu Ungar triple-t's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Posts
    2,114

    Default On the Bubble in SnG

    2 table $1.20 SnG on Stars. Got to the final table 8th in chips, but caught a few hands, and stole some others and had built a good chip lead. 5 players left now. 4 make the money. Blinds are 200/400/25. I had been able to steal almost at will from any position by raising to 1200. Even when someone called, a C-bet would usually take the pot on the flop. I had good reads on the other 4 at the table.

    Then this hand comes up...
    I'm small blind with roughly 10,000 in chips. BB had about 6500. Button had around 4000 and the other 2 had about 3000 each. The hand folds around to me and I have pocket 10s. Every hand that I had raised whether I hand or not, I raised to 1200. So I raised this one to 1200. The BB had a tell. If he was going to fold, he would take his time, but when he had something, he would act quicker. He took a while here and then pushed all-in. So are you calling this or folding? My thoughts and action are below:

    Since I had been winning many uncontested pots and stealing this players blinds a lot, he could have been trying a re-steal. I've seen this guy reraise when he's had a hand, and it was usually a normal sized raise. Given this, I figure it's about 60-40 steal vs. good hand.

    Looking at the chip stacks, If I win, I've got a dominating chip lead. If I lose, I'm in 3rd but real close to 2nd place. I'd have a low M, but still be in decent shape against the other players.

    Finally, if he had a good hand, what would be his range? AA, KK, and possibly QQ are definites. I can't see him pushing with JJ, but it's possible. Non-pair hands include AKs, AK, AQs, and maybe AQ, AJs, and KQs. So if he's got a hand, I'm probably a coin-flip favorite or way behind.

    Anyway, I went with my read that he was weak and made the call. He showed K2o. Guess what fell on the river?

    So was my thinking way off? If so, what should I have done differently in my reasoning?
    I study at KRE8R's School of Bankroll Management.

    If you IM me looking for money or a trade, you will be blocked.

  2. #2
    Mike McDermott
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    West Virginia University
    Posts
    3,185

    Default

    I didn't read the whited out stuff yet but I fold this. He's the only stack that can hurt you and bring you right down to push/fold mode like everyone else. You need to let the smaller stacks busto while preserving your lead, this is a clear-fold IMO.
    BOSS

  3. #3
    Mike McDermott
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    West Virginia University
    Posts
    3,185

    Default

    If we're all ready ITM, I call this without thinking. But first priority is cashing and then playing for first.
    BOSS

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