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  1. #1
    Fish Food
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Posts
    6

    Default Would you have called?

    On the flop I had a double inside straight draw.

    On the turn I had a double inside straight draw, with a flush draw (17 outs)

    Here's the history.

    Full Tilt Poker Game #1648031551: $5 + $0.50 Sit & Go (12056581), Table 1 - 30/60 - No Limit Hold'em - 16:59:53 ET - 2007/01/21
    Seat 1: stix25 (3,330)
    Seat 2: R_Land (2,460)
    Seat 3: Brian Powers (3,105)
    Seat 4: Adanme (3,653)
    Seat 5: Benjigga (4,320)
    Seat 6: billwhite (2,660)
    Seat 7: Arends (2,533)
    Seat 8: Mocha Lotion (3,035)
    Seat 9: jbach009 (3,239)
    Arends posts the small blind of 30
    Mocha Lotion posts the big blind of 60
    The button is in seat #6
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to Benjigga [6s 8s]
    jbach009 calls 60
    stix25 folds
    R_Land folds
    Brian Powers folds
    Adanme calls 60
    Benjigga calls 60
    billwhite folds
    Arends calls 30
    Mocha Lotion checks
    *** FLOP *** [7h Th 5s]
    Arends checks
    Mocha Lotion bets 300
    jbach009 calls 300

    Adanme folds
    Benjigga calls 300
    Arends folds
    *** TURN *** [7h Th 5s] [As]
    Mocha Lotion bets 2,675, and is all in
    jbach009 calls 2,675
    Benjigga folds

    Mocha Lotion shows [Ah 6d]
    jbach009 shows [Qc Qs]
    *** RIVER *** [7h Th 5s As] [9h]
    Mocha Lotion shows a pair of Aces
    jbach009 shows a pair of Queens
    Mocha Lotion wins the pot (6,550) with a pair of Aces
    jbach009 stands up
    The blinds are now 40/80
    *** SUMMARY ***
    Total pot 6,550 | Rake 0
    Board: [7h Th 5s As 9h]
    Seat 1: stix25 didn't bet (folded)
    Seat 2: R_Land didn't bet (folded)
    Seat 3: Brian Powers didn't bet (folded)
    Seat 4: Adanme folded on the Flop
    Seat 5: Benjigga folded on the Turn
    Seat 6: billwhite (button) didn't bet (folded)
    Seat 7: Arends (small blind) folded on the Flop
    Seat 8: Mocha Lotion (big blind) showed [Ah 6d] and won (6,550) with a pair of Aces
    Seat 9: jbach009 showed [Qc Qs] and lost with a pair of Queens

  2. #2
    Loz
    Loz is offline
    Poker Expert Loz's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Location
    Atlantic City bwo Wilmington DE
    Posts
    1,356

    Default

    Loz Pham would of.
    SnG Record
    34 Entries
    17 Cashes
    6 1sts

  3. #3
    Fish Food
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Posts
    6

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Loz View Post
    Loz Pham would of.
    Well... I guess that helps me.

  4. #4
    Super Moderator WotaWaster's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Location
    Luton, England
    Posts
    5,409

    Default

    You are required to place 2675 chips into a pot of 6550. If you call 1 player is all in and the other has 204 chips remaining so I will assume he is willing to put them in on any river. This gives you 6754 return on your 2675 chip investment if you win the hand or odds of about 2.5 - 1.

    This means you would need to win the pot over 1 time in every 3.5 to make this a break even call in terms purely of chip value (The stage of tournamnet may affect how you use this knowledge but I am a cash game playerso someone else can answer that).

    So now the question is do you win here more often than 1 in every 3.5 times?

    First you need to calculate your outs:

    There are four 4's, four 9's and the seven remaining spades which will make you a flush or straight (15 outs). However there is the possibility of someone else haveing higher flush draw (very unlikely as it is a draw) or that someone has 2 pair/a set and the spades which pair the board and no good to us (Since this is a $5 game people probably are willig to put a lot of money in without a big hand so I would again estimate this as fairly low).
    I would therefore assume that on average we have 13 outs to win this hand.

    We can see 6 cards meaning 44 are unknown to us. 13/44 of these cards will win the hand for us.

    This means we will win the hand 3 out of 10 or 1 every 3.3 times.

    That means whether you call or fold you are making a fairly neutral decision on your chips.

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