http://cts687.livejournal.com/

If you go to the link above, you will find CTS' blog and an entry that has some interesting hand histories posted on : 10th-Oct-2006 04:23 am .

Look at these hands he has posted. How in the world can you make these calls?
Even against known loose/aggro opponents in a short-handed game, I'm having trouble fathoming how he could possibly think he is ahead while making these calls.

What do you guys think?

I liked the little spiel at the end about how people ask him how many times he calls all-in with middle pair and is dominated, and he say not often. Sounds like bullshit to me. As posted these hands look like really good calls, but he obviously hasn't posted the ones where he makes calls like that and someone was slow-playing the nuts. Maybe it doesn't happen very often to him any more but I'm sure that he spent years making those calls and losing big.
But if you look at the large amount that these guys bet on the turn compared to the pot size on each of these hands it would be a reasonable call on all of the hands except the QQ (I think he fucked up there and got lucky that the guy was making a play, he could have easily had Ax and not known if it was good until the check on the turn, then be trying to push out draws).

Ya, that's kinda my feeling. Their play is either really bad, or really , really good.

Originally Posted by lairyboy

But if you look at the large amount that these guys bet on the turn compared to the pot size on each of these hands it would be a reasonable call on all of the hands except ...

Can you explain this a little more?

Do you mean that he's getting the right pot odds to call with mid pair?

Or, it's a good gamble b/c if he wins, it will be for a huge amt?

Or, it's such an overbet by his opponents that it must be a bluff?

Can you explain this a little more?

Do you mean that he's getting the right pot odds to call with mid pair?

Or, it's a good gamble b/c if he wins, it will be for a huge amt?

Or, it's such an overbet by his opponents that it must be a bluff?

I think the reason these types of plays can be good calls is that these hand look how people may play a flush draw/weak pair at higher stakes.

They will call the flop in position either with a reasonable draw or a hand that may be best (e.g bottom pair is good when your opponent has no pair) and then shove the turn if checked to, figuring that if the other player really had a hand he would want to put the money in on the turn himself. Slowplayable hands really don't come around all that often and a turn check by the raiser and c-better indicates weakness far more often than a monster here.

CTS is obviously using this information when making these calls.
However playing online and against decent players (I have seen PimpOwnage playing alot on Full Tilt high stakes so he is at least a fairly decent player or extremely rich) I don't think you can ever have that solid of a read. I think the best he can have is an estimate that Pimp doesn't have a hand 75% of the time he pushes there and that makes a call +EV.

The plays make sense...he always checks the turn, which means there's a high probability his opponents are going to try to push him off the hand. The situation would be different if he bet the pot and they raised him all-in; in that case, I'd say he's most likely behind.

I find that analyzing this hand is exteremly educating.

So, it looks like in these hands, CTS decided to make a move pre-flop by 3-betting.

2nd, he c-bet the flop to find out where he stands.

When his opponents just flat-called, he didn't put them on a strong hand..possibly a draw or weak pair (top pair bad kicker/mid pair/low pair).

Knowning this, he checked the turn: why?

1. If he is behind, he doesn't want to build a huge pot , just get a cheaper showdown.
2. He knows that if he checks Turn..his opponents will see this as weakness and attack him with much weaker holdings/draws etc.

3. Because he checked the turn knowing #2, he now is almost compelled to call the shove on the TURN due to the fact that he almost "led them on" to making a "move" on him at that point in the hand.

4. He obivously knows his opponents very well and has a large bankroll to support these types of high-variance NL plays.