Originally Posted by willjim

Set up: 3 table no limit with 4000 starting chips, blinds at 200/400, my current stack is 2600.

Scenario: I'm in the BB 400, droppping my stack to 2200. My Hole cards are JTc. left of BB limps in, mid pos limps in, late mid raises to 800, late pos calls and button calls, SB folds, I call, left of BB calls, mid pos folds. Pot is at 4200. Flop comes down 8h 9c 3d, I check and am checked all around. Turn is 4c. left of BB checks, initial raiser goes all in (the guy has been playing aggressive). Bringing the pot to 6600. late pos and button fold.

I'm putting the all in on A x (maybe paired the board) since he has never slow played yet. The left of BB is rattling his chips so i'm sure he's going to call (making the pot 8800).

If my read on the all in is correct, i can beat him with any of my outs (any J, any T, any Q, any 7, or any club) 21 outs best case 18 outs worst case. so my win pct is ~40 - 50 pct getting 4 to 1 on my bet.

Should I risk and play it for a 4 to 1 payout or fold.

Push flop. Your stack is tiny, open end straight draw with a backdoor flush draw is more than enough to push.

If this isn't an instapush for you on the flop, fold preflop to the minraise because you don't have push-fold equity. You should've open pushed the flop.

push flop...

fold equity plus outs makes this a no brainer