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Go Back PokerForums.org > Strategy Discussion > SNG & MTT Hand Analysis > MTT hand vs Chip Leader

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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 12-12-2006, 01:51 PM
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Default MTT hand vs Chip Leader

I don't play many MTTs these days so I could do with a hand check on this. It was a Deep stack tourney on Ladbrokes. I had just been moved to a new table so had no reads.

163 starters
29 players left
20 payout

Blinds 750/1500

I have 24000 (about 14th out of 29)
Chip Leader has 65000

I'm UTG + 1 and UTG limps before me.

I raise to 6000 with

The chip leader min-raises upto 10500. Everyone folds round to me.


The pot is now ~ 20000. I have 18000 left.

Hero _____? Push or fold?
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Old 12-12-2006, 02:01 PM
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Push and take the coinflip
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Old 12-12-2006, 02:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HSM View Post
Push and take the coinflip
While you probably have the coinflip, there is a definite chance that you are dominated, with only a very slim chance that you have him dominated against a worse Ace. If you fold here you still have a very good chance of making the money and still have plenty of time to pick your spots. If you push it is not expected for the villain to fold, so with no fold equity to be gained from pushing, folding is a better choice IMO.
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Old 12-12-2006, 02:39 PM
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easiest move in poker for me



push
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Old 12-12-2006, 02:59 PM
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Since he has a huge stack he is probably trying to bully with either suited connectors or small pocket pair. I would PUSH!
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Old 12-12-2006, 04:04 PM
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push push push! in an mtt you're gonna need luck in a coinflip at some point and the chance of building a stack more than makes up for the small chance that he has aces or kings IMO.
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Old 12-13-2006, 03:48 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by davidab157 View Post
push push push! in an mtt you're gonna need luck in a coinflip at some point and the chance of building a stack more than makes up for the small chance that he has aces or kings IMO.
Min re raise means a strong chance of KK or AA from my online experience so I'd fold this one (although it depends on the player, some donkeys do nothing but min raise but you'd know if this was the case). I know the bubble is a good time to play aggressively, but not against the chip leader when you have an unmade hand.
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Old 12-13-2006, 06:43 AM
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It's defininately marginal. It would depend how risky I'm feeling / any reads on villian.
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Old 12-13-2006, 01:57 PM
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this is such a tough spot. CL has no reason to believe you are stealing, you raised UTG+1 after an UTG limp, this is a very very strong play, and if it were me I would imagine you have a very reasonable hand.

I would really like to know how the CL was playing up until this point. Honestly he could easaily be a terrible player and not be paying attention. he might have like AJ and be hoping for you to come over the top, but you dont know.

In poker, you have to go with the information available. The chip leader knows you are new to the table, you are making a raise that represents great strength. He (should) know this, and thus, to re raise, he needs to be ahead of AK here.

Hm... however, you started with 24000, put in 6k, you only have 18k left. there is 1500 in the pot from the ep limp, plus the blinds thats 3750, plus your raise which makes 9750, plus the CL's raise so that makes the pot a little less that 20k. hes not folding to a push here at all imo, he is commiting himself to the pot.

i think with your stack, the money allready in the pot, and the chance that you have overcards, the chance hes a donkey, means you have to gamble here. you more than double up if you win and it puts you in position to win the tournament.

if you were opening the pot from the button or the co this would be an instapush, his hand has to be pretty strong because you raised after a limper in EP. however donkeys dont pay attention to this, gamble with his ass, i imagine he has like 77+, maybe AQ or AJ if he is awful. he doesnt HAVE to have aa or kk here.

this is especaily a push at a lower buy in tournament.


fyi im still learning mtts
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Old 12-13-2006, 02:04 PM
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Way too much scrilla in the pot, IMO. It's a strong move form the CL, but also a strong isolation move. You could have the best hand and the odds are better you have him dominated than the other way around. I'd push just because i don't see someone in his spot playing AQ-AT and KQ any differently.
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