Good time to fold AK?

**Mr.McJ** · 10-27-2006

CO took a bad beat and lost half his stack about 15-20 hands ago. Since then he's pushed all in about 4 times just to pick up the measly blinds. He hasn't shown down a hand since the bad beat but claims that he pushed with 22 the first time.

Button hasn't been around long but seems like a decent player.......not great, but decent. He came to the table with around $5k and I double up through him on a hand he should have been able to get away from. He's probably onto CO and I figure him for AK/AQ or 88+.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (9 handed)

Hero (t5780)
BB (t1630)
UTG (t2490)
UTG+1 (t1320)
MP1 (t505)
MP2 (t1930)
MP3 (t6375)
CO (t1225)
Button (t3735)

Preflop: Hero is SB with

,

.
2 folds, MP1 calls t50, 2 folds, CO raises to t1225, Button raises to t3735, 2 folds, MP1 folds.

Flop: (t5085)

,

(2 players)

Turn: (t5085)

(2 players)

River: (t5085)

(2 players)

Final Pot: t5085

Results in white below:
CO has 8c 8s (two pair, eights and twos).
Button has Td Tc (two pair, tens and twos).
Outcome: Button wins t5085.

**shalesey_boy** · 10-28-2006

I think in this case there are arguments for a call and arguments for a fold.

I don't think you can let the outcome sway your decision.

You have them both covered. The most you can lose in the hand is $3735 which would leave you with $2045 (around an M of 27 and just over 13 next blind level). If you win you have a stack of $10865 and a hammer lock on your table. You are getting about 1.3/1 on your money. You figure you are 50/50 vs the Button and the CO you feel you are 50/50 or even 60/40.

If the CO wins and you beat the BB you end up with $7190.

I think you need some gamble in you to call this bet but if you win you are in a great position to win this thing (you missed out the tournament details so i assumed it was an MTT). Its calls like this that pay off that really get you into a position to bully your table for the next 5 levels and build a monstor stack. If you lose you're are definately still in it and can come back.

I call here.

**Mr.McJ** · 10-28-2006

Originally Posted by shalesey_boy

I think you need some gamble in you to call this bet but if you win you are in a great position to win this thing (you missed out the tournament details so i assumed it was an MTT). Its calls like this that pay off that really get you into a position to bully your table for the next 5 levels and build a monstor stack. If you lose you're are definately still in it and can come back.

I call here.

It was the 180 man SnG on stars and at this point there was about 100 people left, maybe more. (See here for details....

)

**OrionPro** · 10-28-2006

NLD. I might have called like Shalesy, but it's probably a blunder. It's just too unlikely we'll be better than coinflip against the button.

**obga** · 10-28-2006

your damnd if you damnd if your dont, thats how i feel....

**the alex** · 10-28-2006

One of them's got a pair and the chances are equal for that person being the Button. When you have the Button beat, you're drawing to dead outs on the whole pot.

Folding leaves you with 5700 chips and blinds going up to 50/100 soon. No need for big confrontations while other people are knocking each other out of the tournament. If the button has about 1500 less, I'd call, but this is a fold.

**Mr.McJ** · 10-28-2006

Originally Posted by obga

your damnd if you damnd if your dont, thats how i feel....

No doubt.
I just figured I was flipping a coin against one of them and the other probably had some of my outs (AK/AQ.) I'm already 2nd in the tournament with way more than the average chip stack. Sure a win here is going to put me in a great spot but a loss will drop me back into the middle of the pack. I'm also trying to work on my small ball game, so.....

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