Horrid bubble play (lay into me)

**SeanyBullets1** · 10-24-2006

I played this horribly. Hand right before this I lost 10K to CL and dropped from 2nd to 5th. He had the goods. He plays tight, solid poker. Doesn't bluff much but value bets everything. Don't know why I didn't give him credit here.

Oh, 2 away from ITM. Bubble. Dammit

I suck

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG (t4975)
MP1 (t61030)
MP2 (t16097)
CO (t5115)
Button (t4580)
Hero (t17535)
BB (t14459)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9

, A

.
1 fold, MP1 raises to t1200, 3 folds, Hero calls t900, BB calls t600.

Flop: (t3000) A

, J

, 8

(3 players)
Hero bets t2500, BB folds, MP1 calls t2500.

Turn: (t8000) 8

(2 players)
Hero bets t5000, MP1 raises to t57280, Hero calls t8785 (All-In).

River: (t79065) Q

(2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t79065

Results in white below:
MP1 has Jc Ac (two pair, aces and jacks).
Hero has 9c Ah (two pair, aces and eights).
Outcome: MP1 wins t79065.

**the alex** · 10-24-2006

Taking it out of hindsight, I give this min. raise NO credit especially is lo-stakes tournaments. His stack makes this an easy fold because he won't go anywhere unless you push and he'll call a push with JT, QJ, KJ+, A9+, and any pair (because people in these tournaments don't differentiate between their pushing and calling ranges. These hands are NEVER and I mean NEVER laid down for any price before the flop by these guys. On the bubble, this applies to a big stack as well.). You have to hope that he has absolute junk to play this hand.

Against a stack between 10k and 20k, you're in a spot where you have to re-raise to at least 4500, but you can't play against that massive stack.

**OrionPro** · 10-24-2006

Even if a minraiser had aces or kings most of the time it would be an instacall for a big stack. You cant fold to a minraise due to pot odds, table image etc. So expect him to call with any half decent hand here...

In low stakes min raising can also be due to people not knowing how to raise (or how much to raise), another reason to always call here. However since it's on the bubble, the worst players probably got kicked out already.

**the alex** · 10-25-2006

Originally Posted by DaFish

Even if a minraiser had aces or kings most of the time it would be an instacall for a big stack. You cant fold to a minraise due to pot odds, table image etc. So expect him to call with any half decent hand here...

In low stakes min raising can also be due to people not knowing how to raise (or how much to raise), another reason to always call here. However since it's on the bubble, the worst players probably got kicked out already.

The reverse implied odds against a big stack with A9 absolutely suck. He's not gonna try to bully you if an Ace hits the board unless he beats you and he's gonna bully you a lot postflop. Any time you actually showdown, it'll be an expensive showdown where the price grows gradually and you'll probably lose the showdown. Most of the time when you do win, you'll only win what's in the pot and you're not winning this pot often because you're on the call going into the flop.

So you're getting 2:1 on a pot that you're not winning 33% of the time and you're not extracting more money postflop enough witht he best hand compared to what you lose because "you have odds" to blow chips playing a hand that could've been in the muck and you can take the next pot with almost nothing and have close to 19k going into the BB with an M over 15 which is fairly large considering that this is a Hi Q situation relative to the M.

NL shouldn't be played on the call.

As to the worst players getting knocked out, I'd disagree. If this is a 180-man, for example 10 of the 20 left are probably among the 50 worst and 5 of the other 10 are still pretty bad, just not horrible. Of the 180 man field, I'd guess that at least 150 are bad. They built a huge stack early, got scared of losing them because they know how bad they are and conserved or they just continued to run ridiculously well for the last 2 hours. My opinion is one to definitely take with a grain of salt because I believe that over 99% of people with at least $11 laying around in their account are bad.

**OrionPro** · 10-25-2006

Prolly you're right Alex. I just see less minraisers in the final stage of tourneys. At $4/180 FTs the standard raise seems pretty much 3BB or more. Then again quite a few donks get really deep. There was even one at the Sunday Million FT.

**WotaWaster** · 10-25-2006

There is an argument for folding AK there, never mind A9. Even if you push all in with AK, and he decided to call with any pair you are going to bust over 50% of the time and fail to make money, If he calls with Ax/Kx you will bust about 25% of the time.

There are 3 players with a stack of only 1/3 of yours and a M of 5. Just 2 of those must drop before you make the money. I don't know payout structure but assuming making the money is worthwhile, you shouldn't be playing any pots against players who cover you unless it is either calling all in with AA/KK or if you are pushing into them maybe AK, TT+.

Your position kind of sucks, but if you had 2 shortstacks on the blinds when you were button, you should be open pushing a lot of hands if folded around to you.

**SeanyBullets1** · 10-25-2006

So insta-fold PF me thinks?

**tightagressive** · 10-27-2006

i fold pf. on the flop once you get called on a drawless board, i might slow down and check the turn, as a tight solid player as you say probably has AJ, A8, JJJ, when they dont raise the flop.

i think this is one of those hands where you can never really win a big pot but you can lose a big pot here with top pair no kicker. A9 is hard to know where you are, the only thing i might do is shove preflop against a lag raiser (but your chips arent really low enough to do that with A9o yet)

wait... wtf. u are in the blinds? fold pf!!!

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