I hate open-limping, but limpers weren't being pusinshed at this table at all. Limping into a lot of pots was definitely working to my advantage. I figured that I'd get limpers behind me to pay me off, so I open-limped.

BB was a min. raiser. He did it with a short stack with QQ. They got busted postflop by AJ. He did it as a shortstack with AA and got shoved all in. I deduced AA-QQ because this was an "I want action" move. He obviously has problems with thinning out a field and punishing limpers, so this was a bad attempt by him to take it down preflop. That's why I interpreted this as a "big raise."

Is this good enough reason to justify my actions here:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

Button (t4225)
SB (t2565)
BB (t2165)
UTG (t4775)
UTG+1 (t4590)
MP1 (t3217)
Hero (t4845)
MP3 (t5785)
CO (t3138)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 6, 6.
3 folds, Hero calls t150, 1 fold, CO calls t150, 1 fold, SB completes, BB raises to t600, Hero raises to t1100, CO folds, SB folds, BB raises to t2165, Hero calls t1065.

hand went pretty sour it seemes. cheap flop turned into 2k flop.
When he re pops it, you need to either fold, call or isolate. Limper behind you obv will fold to RR b/c if he had good hand he woulda raised your limp. You dont know what a big bet means. Youv only seen his baybe raises.

Tough call. I'd prolly call. Mainly b/c while I like gambling w/ coinflips, I dont like to react. If ima go HU against KJ, I want to be the pf raiser. Just a habbit, idk if its good or bad.

I think guy in BB has AQ -AA.

Calling the BB's all in was a definite. I was just making a cheap isolation. Something I 've been trying lately. It was more of a defensive move in case the CO wanted to iso-push.

I think you've read that this guy is an ABC intermediate or amature. He acts weak when strong and strong when weak. He doesn't have many plays in his book. From his previous play you now put him on a hand that he wants to finish pre flop.

The question is how much info do you have on this guy?

IMO a weak ABC player such as this will try finish a hand pre flop with various ranges. I would figure with the information you have given a range from AK-AT or maybe KQ. I'd also factor in small and mid pairs. 22-88 and possibly 99. I recon he'd probably baby raise TT upwards.

I figure the chances he has AK-AT including KQ is about 70% and you will win these showdowns around 53% of the time.

That leaves 30% for pairs. There are 4 pairs you are 80% to win. 3 pairs you are 20% to win and 1 pair that is a 95% split pot and 2% to lose.

So here are my sums (not gospel and lots of assumptions, but I recon this is about right.

The pot is $4555 and you invest $2165

With AK-AT inc KQ You will win $2390 53% and lose $2165 47% which works out as (0.53)*(2390) - (0.47)*(2165) = 1266.7 - 1017.55 = +ev $249.15

With the pairs you dominate you will win $2390 80% and lose $2165 20% which works out as (0.80)*(2390) - (0.20)*(2165) = 1912 - 433 = + ev $1479

With the pairs that dominate you, you will win $2390 20% and lose $2165 20% which looks like (0.20)*(2390) - (0.80)*(2165) = 478 - 1732 = -ev $1254

The pair you are the same as you will win $2390 2% and lose $2165 2% which works out as (0.02)*(2390) - (0.02)*(2165) = 47.8 - 43.3 = +ev $4.5

There are 6 ways to make each pair and 1 way to make the 66. We acn break down the 30% into 4*6 = 24 lower pairs, 3*6 = 18 Higher pairs and 1 equal pair which is 43 ways to make pairs.

Which works as 55.82% to make lower pairs 41.86% to make higher and 2.32% to make exact.

So the working for +ev for pairs is (0.5582)*(1479) - (0.4186)*(1254) + (0.0232)*(4.5) = $825.58 - $524.92 + $0.10 = +ev $300.76

Nearlly done now. So that gives us final workings given my assumptions of (0.70)*(249.15) + (0.30)*(300.76) = $174.41 + $90.23 = +ev $264.64

So I recon its a +ev move given the info. With only risking just under half your stack its a nice move to get some chips given your weak opponent.

I could be barking up the wrong tree tho.

Originally Posted by DaFish

I dont like that preflop line, you give him huge odds to call. Dependent on his hand, he can decide to either see a flop or push AI now, since you're not folding anyways.

I was pretty aware that my folding equity was 0% on the BB Even if I raised enough to put him all in, this was early in a $10 online tournament. He's not folding especially after I limped. These guys would never see that as me representing Aces, nor do I expect them to do so. After both of those min. raises, he was re-raised, and responded with a shove. I'm not a complete idiot.

What about my answer?

P.S. I was bored at work so decided to work it out. I might have overestimated the percentage of overcards to pairs but either way its still +ev until you add more of the biggger pairs.

Originally Posted by shalesey_boy

What about my answer?

I work out those guesstimations in the moment. I wasn't worried about a "time tell" when I was deciding between folding and forcing my opponents between myself and the BB to call 900+ after limping. I could put those mental calculations here, but i don't want them to sway any replies. I just gave some reasoning and figured other people would make their own calculations in more detail with the time allowed. I was just wondering how close, if at all, they'd be to mine.

This was obviosuly a mathematical hand.

You could have just said you'll have to wait and see. :P

most likely villian has AK here imo.
judging from what u said, hes probably one of those guys that raise AK-AJ normally, and min raise QQ-AA for fear of not getting action