9-man $10 SNG

Was 4-handed for about 2 1/2 blind levels, before this had every time it folded to the villain in the SB he had just called. So this raise kind set off the spider sences (DANGER! DANGER!), had a feeling like I was walking into a big bear trap.... however... can I really fold 9s here? Im the shortstack with M of 5, so if Im playing then Im all in...

easy push... or should I have gone with my read and folded? Im I being too paranoid? I hate bursting on the bubble

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

SB (t2815)
Hero (t1500)
UTG (t7325)
Button (t1860)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9, 9.
2 folds, SB raises to t600, Hero raises to t1500, SB calls t900.

Flop: (t3000) A, 5, J (2 players)

Turn: (t3000) J (2 players)

River: (t3000) 4 (2 players)

Final Pot: t3000

Results in white below:
SB has Qc Qd (two pair, queens and jacks).
Hero has 9s 9d (two pair, jacks and nines).
Outcome: SB wins t3000.

Ok, so I thought over what you said... basically there are 4 situations which Im interested in.

I end up against... 2 overs, bigger pair, smaller pair, or one over (Im ignoring 2 under cards, since I think the chances of that is less then 3%)

So roughly I think his range would be:
situation 1: 50% 2 overs
situation 2: 30% higher pair
situation 3: 10% smaller pair
situation 4: 10% 1 over

situation 1:
lose: .45% * -$1300 = -$585
win: .55% * $1800 = $990
overall: $405

situation 2:
lose: .8% * -$1300 = -$1040
win: .2% * $1800 = $360
overall: -$680

situation 3:
lose: .2% * -$1300 = -$260
win: .8% * $1800 = $1440
overall: $1180

situation 4:
lose: .35% * -$1300 = -$455
win: .65% * $1800 = $1170
overall: $715

Final Outcome: .5(405)+.3(-680)+.1(1180)+.1(780) = 202.5 - 204 + 118 + 78 = $194.5

So it seems like it was a slightly +EV decision. But considering that if I lose, I bust on the bubble Im thinking this is -EV situation to push here. You guys think im on the right track here? (Math might be messed up)

I agree that a usually a opponent in this situation is pushing with any two cards. If I truly had no read then pushing is the strongest play. But this oppenent was playing pretty tight and solid and he had never tried to steal my blind for almost 3 blind levels. I felt like there was alot of warning signs that this was a trap play, which I fell into. Most of the time I would push no questions asked, but I think on rare occassions you got to go with your gut feeling and pass on the hand. Maybe if this was live I could have got some other physical clues, hard to fold online though at a $10 sng level.