I'd take UTG+1's raise seriously 'cause of his position and, of course, 'cause he's not folding.

You lose nothing by folding and you win little by iso-pushing.

EDIT: Got positions mixed up. Been staring at this screen for 12+ hrs.

Pushing gives you the best chance to take the pot down, as you might drive out pp < TT, AT and under, or any other holdings that are weaker than you that might outdraw you. But.... you are getting stacked by AK and QQ+ which won't fold. AQ and JJ may or may not call you, but you're in trouble if they do.

I say call. UTG+1 can't reraise, only call. So you are essentially calling 13k to win 30k, getting 2.3:1 odds.
With a guy all-in, on the bubble in a 3-way pot, with UTG+1 playing conservative and tight and looking to cash, this hand is getting checked down unless someone hits the flop hard. Neither of you should bet again without top pair at least. When the flop comes, just check real fast to give him the message, "let's see this through and knock this guy out to cash".
UTG+1 is only going to bet the flop with:
1) overpair
2) set
3) TPTK
4) 2 pair
If he has any of these hands you gladly give him the pot (unless of course you hit the flop hard as well). You only lost 4BB and you have 17BB left.

The only downfalls here are:
1) He bets you out of the pot with a flop of A x x and turns over AT.
2) You flop TPTK or 2 pair but he spikes a set and stacks you.
3) He bets and you have a FD and a tough decision
I think these scenarios are going to be very rare.

Calling gives you 2.3:1 odds and a) a high liklihood of seeing all 5 cards b) very low chance of getting stacked c) very low chance of being bluffed


Note: if button's push was big enough that UTG+1 was allowed to reraise, I would fold AJ here.

Originally Posted by WotaWaster

Is calling really an option?

I guess so, not something I'd ever consider for 1/6th my stack really.

Normally I agree. Calling pf makes the post-flop play more difficult. But circumstances here (one guy all-in, tight player, on the bubble, no reraise possible...) make the post-flop play as ABC and transparent as it gets.

A guy looking to make the money who is very reluctant to put chips in the pot is probably mindful of his position, so I don't think he's putting 10k of his 24k in the pot in EP with a hand that makes AJ good to take a flop with. Wota isn't seeing 5 cards by calling, he's only seeing 3 too many times and losing 13k here would absolutely suck.

My mantra's always been "I'd rather take a bad beat that get outkicked" which is more meaningful to me in tournaments because it's short stack poker. Being on the call PF with a trouble hand for around 20% of your stack is a slow death, IMO.

It's really up to your in the moment read on UTG+1. Was the 10k to leave himself a way out or to induce an iso-push. You don't want to give a short stack what they want and they want to play big pots in relatively marginal situations investing large portions of their stack before the flop. That's counter-intuitive to your best method which is playing small pots as the aggressor while trying to AVOID giving courtesy double-ups- especially to someone who's usually putting the money with the best of it.

I'd usually say that pushing is the winning play for the tournament as you can pick up some dead money and beat random hands, but I don't see UTG+1 folding. You lose nothing by folding here.