Early in a $5 MTT.- Raise the blocking bet or bite the bait.

**the alex** · 07-28-2006

I can't fold here, but am I raising or folding? No reads.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP3 (t1655)
Hero (t1440)
Button (t905)
SB (t1440)
BB (t2295)
UTG (t1230)
UTG+1 (t1150)
MP1 (t2520)
MP2 (t2285)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A

, J

.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t30, 2 folds, MP3 calls t30, Hero calls t30, Button calls t30, 1 fold, BB checks.

Flop: (t165) 5

, J

, 2

(5 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 bets t90, Hero raises to t240, Button folds, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP3 calls t150.

Turn: (t645) K

(2 players)
MP3 bets t90, Hero _________________ ???

**Eclipse86** · 07-29-2006

i'd call turn and take it to the river.. folding river if he leads out strong or if spade hits.. the way he played this looks EXACTLY like a FD, probably A high FD in which case his A = dead out. Either that or a very weak Jack, probably J6-JT.

his flop and turn bets look way too weak to be KJ.

either that or i would:
raise to 550ish on the turn.

also there is no way in hell i am folding this. Its either call or raise on turn.
i also think calling would be the better play, cuz if u decide to raise and it gets called, you get pot commited.

**SeanyBullets1** · 07-29-2006

I just call the turn and see what he does on the river. He could have a set of fivs (not completely out of the question) and is just a calling donk, his little bets just trying to string you along until he's got all your chips. Hey may be hoping that you do on the river what you did on the turn. Or I'd say he has a very weak J.

Either way, I'll let the scare card go and pop big on the river.

**obga** · 08-01-2006

i like seans thinking with the set of 5's

i got burnd like this a couple nights ago tptk bet 30 into a 200 pot i raise both flop and turn then check the river

he has a set

**Mr.McJ** · 08-01-2006

I'd raise the turn myself. If he comes over the top, you know he has KJ or better.
Then again I don't like being left with a tough call on the river and I think the best way to avoid that is to raise the turn. I'm sure your river play is better than mine so flat calling would be a viable option.

**mxp2004** · 08-01-2006

It looks to me like he's trying to price his own draw. His flop bet and call suggests that the flop hit him in some way. I think a set is unlikely because he neither re-raised you on the flop nor took an opportunity to check-raise you on the turn. I think that the most likely hands here are A5s, A2s, Axs, KJ, and KQs. You're ahead of most of these, but I don't see a reason to get too many of your chips committed with 2d pair here. With the blinds still low, more than 1100 chips after calling, and superior position, I'd take the conservative route and just call here. Let the board and his actions on the river be your guide from there.

**The Real DeCoy** · 08-01-2006

Raise Preflop. I know thats the last thing you want to hear, but if you're going to play a medium-high strength hand like this you should shake out the shit hands. I do not like playing this hand 5 handed specifically for this reason.

Now realistically you gotta look at the hand after the flop

Pot: 165t Flop: 5J2rainbow He bets 90

If you flopped a set are you betting more than half the pot here? I'm probably checking with 2 players to act after me. If I do bet Im betting 1/3 of the pot just to see who is interested. The only hand that would worry me is someone playing a tiny Ace lie A3 or A4, but if that hand hits on the turn I'll be looking for it. Furthermore, if I got reraised like you did and I had a set I'd immediately put you on a strong jack and reraise you again so I can get more of your chips in.

This leads me to believe that he is playing two high cards or he caught a piece of the flop, but not all of it. My best guess as to his hand is that hes got JK-J3 but not J5 or J2 or hes got suited spades. Every time I have seen this betting behavior its been a hand worse than TPTK and usuallly its suited hand where the guy is trying to freeze you into letting him see a cheap river. You raise this hand. Based on the guy I dont think there is a bet other than all in that will get him to fold so I would raise it to 350. This way its like you made the initial bet and his 350 in is really a play to bad odds. If the flush hits the flush hits and you may have to fold, but if it misses you take the pot.

The bottom line is that if you're gonna play AJ you gotta play it like its the best.

**The Real DeCoy** · 08-01-2006

Originally Posted by mxp2004

It looks to me like he's trying to price his own draw. His flop bet and call suggests that the flop hit him in some way. I think a set is unlikely because he neither re-raised you on the flop nor took an opportunity to check-raise you on the turn. I think that the most likely hands here are A5s, A2s, Axs, KJ, and KQs. You're ahead of most of these, but I don't see a reason to get too many of your chips committed with 2d pair here. With the blinds still low, more than 1100 chips after calling, and superior position, I'd take the conservative route and just call here. Let the board and his actions on the river be your guide from there.

If he smells weakness on the river hes going to push....then what? You're not going to call off your stack in the dark.

**mxp2004** · 08-01-2006

Originally Posted by The Real DeCoy

If he smells weakness on the river hes going to push....then what? You're not going to call off your stack in the dark.

Maybe he will, maybe he won't. Not every player pushes all in the minute someone just flat calls them. He knows you've shown real interest in the pot, and because it's so early, he has no idea whether you're a calling station or not. If he winds up with a busted draw, he has to think long and hard about whether he wants to bluff off his whole tournament.

The way I see it, if he's only got a draw right now, you priced him out of it with your flop raise. He still called. He'll call another raise here, and depending of the size of it, may push himself if he recognizes that both players are now pot committed. And of course, if he's actually holding a K, you're dead to 5 outs at most (assuming that any spades or jacks left are live).

There may be a time in the tournament when you have to take these kind of risks. But when you can still get away from the hand and have over 20M left to play with, why make the leap now? IMHO, this hand is not worth it, and the circumstances do not require it.

**mxp2004** · 08-01-2006

Originally Posted by The Real DeCoy

Every time I have seen this betting behavior its been a hand worse than TPTK and usuallly its suited hand where the guy is trying to freeze you into letting him see a cheap river. You raise this hand. Based on the guy I dont think there is a bet other than all in that will get him to fold so I would raise it to 350. This way its like you made the initial bet and his 350 in is really a play to bad odds. If the flush hits the flush hits and you may have to fold, but if it misses you take the pot.

hey Decoy... I just re-read your original post. I think we have both come to the same conclusion about what the opponent's likely holding is, and I see the merit in the kind of raise you are advocating.

The biggest downside to what you suggest, however, is the amount chips that you are left with. Assuming that you make the raise you suggest and are just called, you'll be left with 820 chips. That's committing almost half your stack to this pot before the river. Is this hand worth it? I don't know... I'm still leaning against it.

I'd be more solidly with you if your stack at the beginning of the hand were @3000 instead of @ 1500. In any event, I see your point, and it's a good play if the read about a draw is accurate.

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