180 Man SNG bubble, turn play?

**Pok 7's** · 07-12-2006

Wondering what you guys would do here, 4.40 SNG on Stars and there's 20 players left, final 18 are ITM. We're sitting 9th in chips.

A handfull of donks are still in, last hand I played at this table was AJ that I rased got 1 caller on a flop of 9,3,x I made a continuation bet. Guy pushed (smaller stack and I had him covered).... I called he had a 78o I busted him with my A high.

Mostly a min raise usually all that was needed for the table to usually fold.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (7 handed) CP hand converter

MP2 (t9118)
CO (t15255)
Button (t5405)
SB (t5084)
BB (t23530)
Hero (t11530)
MP1 (t13210)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with

,

.
Hero raises to t1500, MP1 calls t1500, 5 folds.

Flop: (t3300)

,

(2 players)
Hero bets t2800, MP1 calls t2800.

Turn: (t8900)

(2 players)
Hero ???? - What are you guys doing here?

**KRE8R** · 07-12-2006

I would push. Homeboy is on the flush draw. Thats my take.

**Eclipse86** · 07-12-2006

first off, i dont like ur pf raise amount... its just a bit shy of a min raise..
i woulda raised to like 2000-2400 myself. this would put the flop ps at about
5Kish including the blinds.

then..

i would most likely check-raise all in on the flop, either that or just open push it on the flop.

BUT, from the way u played it.. the turn is a push..

**Barbourman** · 07-13-2006

I had the same situation yesterday. I had AQs and the flop was very similar. I pushed on the turn. The villian showed pocket kings...

**tightagressive** · 07-13-2006

1st thing to consider is, since you are nearing the bubble you will be called by a stronger range of hands than usual.

2nd thing to consider is, what could he have?
well, i wasnt at the table, so my thought process might not be even near correct, but here is how i would go about thinking.

ok, i dont mind the pf raise at all really. blinds are getting big and i think this raise accomplishes the same thing as the raise to 2000, and you save chips when you miss the flop (and are less committed when you get a piece of it)

on the flop, you have a few options. we could check to induce a bet, but i dont like that because he couldnt have plenty of draws, we might give him a free one. we could push all in but i dont like that play for a few reasons, mainly that since you are overbetting the pot, you are losing action from lots of hands like KT, 88, and 99. a flop bet the size of the pot protects against draws but ensures we still get action from hands we can beat. also, a potsized bet still leaves us plenty of room on the turn. if it didnt, we would push.

once he just calls on the flop we have to narrow his hand range. here is where i might be wrong because i wasnt at the table. typically, people re raise pf with QQ+, so lets rule that out. if hes reasonable he wouldnt have called with 33. TT is likley, although some players push TT pf. but, dont rule it out, its in there. you are also losing to QT, donks love this hand.
any other hand he could probably have based on his action, we are beating. and if he was a big enough donk to call PF with KT, he will call a potsized bet. so, make a potsized bet.
on the turn his hand range is the same. the blinds are big, the pot is big, he beats us with TT and QT and we beat anything else. now we push, because:
unlike the flop, he has committed alot more chips, and will probably feel that he "has" to call with whatever hand hes called with on the flop. he is "pot committed" he will tell himself. (i hear this all of the time)
if we bet less than all in, we could be pricing him in with a draw.

the only thing that scares me is that since its the bubble people are playing cautious. he might have smooth called pf with AA, KK, or QQ. however your play is still push the turn, because these hands are unlikley given the fact they are big pairs and given the fact he smooth called pf and on the draw heavy flop. most likley he has a big draw, middle pp, T or Q with good kicker.

you are ahead of his range, and the pot is to the point where any bet less than all in is stupid. checking is stupid. go all in.

**manguydude21** · 07-13-2006

all in by the turn.

**OrionPro** · 07-13-2006

I prolly check the turn, and try to see a cheap showdown. If he has a 15-outer, he might just call even if we push. Would he fold KJs here? I doubt it. If he hit trips, we safely go broke as well.

**tightagressive** · 07-13-2006

Originally Posted by DaFish

I prolly check the turn, and try to see a cheap showdown. If he has a 15-outer, he might just call even if we push. Would he fold KJs here? I doubt it. If he hit trips, we safely go broke as well.

ok, hes calling a potsized bet with 15 outs and one card left.

hes getting 2:1

he has a 30% chance to hit

trips is very unlikley, the only pp he could have is TT imo.

push the turn

**SeanyBullets1** · 07-13-2006

No spade = push that shit.

**Jason75** · 07-13-2006

I think a reasonable villian calling range PF is 66-AA, AJ-A8, KT+, QT+, JT, perhaps suited connectors down to 65s. Some people tend to get trappy towards the end when they have a big pair, so I wouldn't rule out AA-QQ initially. AK/AQ raise (I really don't see anyone slow playing these hands).

You bet the flop, they flat call. I think 2 pair raises (because of the FD), I think a set likely raises (QQ/TT because of the FD), and even KQ likely raises here (FD). AA/KK definitely raises.

So I'd put villian on KJ(s or o), QJ, JJ, 99-77, or a FD with SC's. Perhaps AT/KT/JT . Very low possiblity of slow playing 2 pair, a set, or overpair.

So against this range, we want to charge them for drawing on us, or just take the pot away right now (given we can't really afford to lose it at this point). Given the size of the pot (about the same size as our remaining stack), doing anything other than pushing doesn't make sense (we're not going to put 1/2 our stack in and fold to a scare card on the river).

Push . . . .

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