First off, what type of player is she? I know you said the game was short handed and aggressive, but is she capable of adapting to that by limping first in to trap? Is she very tight or passive?
PF - I think calling here is a good play, though I may be tempted to raise a small % of the time with a nice sized pot already building.
Flop - Either lead the flop or check/call . . . . min raising doesn't do anything than build a big pot because she'll likely call with anything. Yes, yes, you've got trip A's but she limped in first so your kicker is definitely an issue here. You're OOP, and you'd like to play a smaller pot when in this situation.
If you're intent on check raising, then make it a real raise to 4500 or so . . .
Your min raise screams A, so what kind of Q do you think she has? I'm really just putting her on the A here, so there are 4 A's I'm ahead of, 7 I'm losing to, and 1 I'm tied with. Here's the problem: Even the 4 A's I'm beating are likely to get a split pot if any card higher than a 6 comes off, and I'm only going to win if I hit a miracle 6.
Turn - Ok, now you're only beating 3 A's, losing to 8, and tied with 1. Betting here OOP is just plain silly. Check and see what happens. . . But we bet, and she calls . . . this really doesn't tell us anything, as she'd likely call with the FH or A-high kicker to get us to keep betting the hand on the river, or call with A-weak kicker. Frankly, I'm rooting for a K or Q to come off and give me a tie to get me out of this mess . . . if a 6 comes off, I promise I'll stop donking off chips like this . . .
River: Well, that's both a terrible and ok card at the same time. We're now beating 0 A's (that's right, as in not a single Ax combination), tied with 6 A's, and losing to 6 A cominations. If we bet here, can we get a tie or better A to fold? No freakin way. And since there are no hands that we can beat, then there is no reason to bet. Just check it down and see if you split. . . . But you bet, she raises . . . I gotta believe we're beat but the odds are just too big to get away from . . . I have to call the river and see if I split. . . .
And guess what . . . we're beat. And we lost a huge pot because we didn't take the time to ask ourselves what hands we could beat each time we bet, and we didn't respect the fact that we're OOP . . . .
__________________
Jason75: Ok, you check and the button bets 400. Now what?
Beavis68: You play poker.
Jason75: Darn, I was really hoping for canasta. Maybe Gin.
Last edited by Jason75; 07-12-2006 at 11:17 AM.
|