I was playing $2/$5 NLH at Magic City Casino when around 2am it started to get crazy at my table. Two of players were were blind betting and just being complete maniacs. Tell me what you guys think of this play:
It gets folded to the hijack where Maniac 1 ($600) sticks in $100 blind. Maniac 2 ($400) calls $100 blind from the cutoff. The button folds and I ($1,200) look down at AJ offsuit. I pause for a moment to think about it while the big blind practically mucks out of turn. I would like to note that I am 100% sure that they were betting in the blind because I watched them both very carefully. So I stick a stack of greens in the pot to put the two villains all-in. Is this too risky of a gamble? I figured my AJ is most likely the best hand against two randoms but I am not sure if this play is +EV. There are only 6 hands that I am scared of calling (AA,KK,QQ,JJ,AK,AQ) and I was sure one of the villains would put it in with worse. Of course, any under-pair is slightly favored however if I get called by an under-pair I am in a profitable situation considering there would be $100 of dead money in the pot (assuming the other villain folds). What do you guys think? Also, what about the possibility of flatting the $100? I think it is completely out of the question but if anyone disagrees let me know. Any math that shows the chances of AJ being good against two randoms would be appreciated. I will post the outcome of the hand after I receive some feedback.
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Thread: gamble gamble or +EV?
May 2nd, 2012 #1
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gamble gamble or +EV?
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