I though that was a good play
both players were very tight (about 7/5)
I guessed the original raiser missed, and the flop bettor didn't have a K with high kicker
I was 28/24 on that table, so I could easily have a set or maybe even K8 or a flush draw
and a check/raise is always suspicious
do you think that play is +ev?
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
CO ($25)
Button ($25)
SB ($16.70)
Hero (BB) ($32.43)
UTG ($25)
UTG+1 ($25)
MP1 ($25)
MP2 ($20.47)
Preflop: Hero is BB with J, Q
3 folds, MP2 bets $0.75, 1 fold, Button calls $0.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.50
Flop: ($2.35) K, 4
, 8
(3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks, Button bets $1.50, Hero raises to $4, 2 folds
Total pot: $5.35 | Rake: $0.26
Results:
Hero had J, Q
.
Outcome: Hero won $5.09
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Results 1 to 9 of 9
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04-07-2011 #1Chaser
- Join Date
- May 2008
- Posts
- 191
bluffing tight players with no outs
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04-07-2011 #2
Consider that the success rate necessary of a complete bluff is Bet/(Bet+Pot), so $4/($3.85+$4), or ~51%.
So you think they fold >51% of the time?
Also, LAG'ing it up much there?
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04-07-2011 #3Chaser
- Join Date
- May 2008
- Posts
- 191
hm, I don't know
that's a difficult position to be in, specially being tight
I guess if they wouldn't fold >51%, that would be close to it
yes, you're correct about LAG
I usually try to estabilish this image when I join a table (I had played 36 hands at the time and I raised about 7 of them)
after a while I change gears
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04-07-2011 #4
It might be all right once and a while. MP2 checks probably signals he missed, BTN might just be making a play for the pot with a medium pair. You do hold the QJs, so you have blockers to QQ,JJ which may call thinking you're FOS.
Hands that may call/raise AK(12),KQs(2),AhQh(1),44(3),88(3),QQ(3),QhJh(1),Jh Th(1) = 26
Hands that fold 22-33,55-77,99-JJ(45)
So about 63% folds. So probably okay unless they decide to spite call you down. If you want a little more equity in spots like this, consider if the 8c had been the 8s you'd have quite a few turn cards that would benefit you.
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04-16-2011 #5
it's cool that you're trying to make plays and all but you've gotta make a few considerations instead of just raising
firstly pre is a fold, the guy has 80bb so he's not observant (he would have reloaded pre), you're way behind ranges, i'm sure you don't know how to deal with Qxx flops with correct frequencies, and above he's a fucking 7/5
think about your range when you c/r that flop. you can't have K8, so you can have two sets and Axhh, that's assuming you didn't lead them! i assume you auto 3b AK here and you can't c/r KQ for value vs this guy
you also wanna size flop bigger with your whole range, 5-5.5 oop, 4.5 is ok ip, 4 is too small
always hard to give advice for fullring because ranges are just so nitty and literally adding like one hand into a range can change everything.
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11-08-2011 #6Fish
- Join Date
- Nov 2011
- Location
- www.pokerchampcoaching.com
- Posts
- 66
This is a good spot to mix up your play. I actually like your call pre-flop and I like the check raise, although I would check raise a little bigger next time to discourage calls from QQ-99.
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11-27-2011 #7
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12-12-2011 #8Banned
- Join Date
- Nov 2011
- Posts
- 25
Strongly agree.
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01-08-2012 #9Fish Food
- Join Date
- Sep 2011
- Posts
- 2
Consider that the success rate necessary of a complete bluff is Bet/(Bet+Pot), so $4/($3.85+$4), or ~51%.
So you think they fold >51% of the time?
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