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  1. #1
    Chaser
    Join Date
    May 2008
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    191

    Default bluffing tight players with no outs

    I though that was a good play
    both players were very tight (about 7/5)

    I guessed the original raiser missed, and the flop bettor didn't have a K with high kicker
    I was 28/24 on that table, so I could easily have a set or maybe even K8 or a flush draw
    and a check/raise is always suspicious

    do you think that play is +ev?


    Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    CO ($25)
    Button ($25)
    SB ($16.70)
    Hero (BB) ($32.43)
    UTG ($25)
    UTG+1 ($25)
    MP1 ($25)
    MP2 ($20.47)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with J, Q
    3 folds, MP2 bets $0.75, 1 fold, Button calls $0.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.50

    Flop: ($2.35) K, 4, 8 (3 players)
    Hero checks, MP2 checks, Button bets $1.50, Hero raises to $4, 2 folds

    Total pot: $5.35 | Rake: $0.26

    Results:
    Hero had J, Q.
    Outcome: Hero won $5.09

  2. #2
    Semi-Pro Moderator KnightofNarg's Avatar
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    Default

    Consider that the success rate necessary of a complete bluff is Bet/(Bet+Pot), so $4/($3.85+$4), or ~51%.

    So you think they fold >51% of the time?

    Also, LAG'ing it up much there?

  3. #3
    Chaser
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    May 2008
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by KnightofNarg View Post
    Consider that the success rate necessary of a complete bluff is Bet/(Bet+Pot), so $4/($3.85+$4), or ~51%.

    So you think they fold >51% of the time?

    Also, LAG'ing it up much there?
    hm, I don't know
    that's a difficult position to be in, specially being tight
    I guess if they wouldn't fold >51%, that would be close to it

    yes, you're correct about LAG
    I usually try to estabilish this image when I join a table (I had played 36 hands at the time and I raised about 7 of them)
    after a while I change gears

  4. #4
    Semi-Pro Moderator KnightofNarg's Avatar
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    Default

    It might be all right once and a while. MP2 checks probably signals he missed, BTN might just be making a play for the pot with a medium pair. You do hold the QJs, so you have blockers to QQ,JJ which may call thinking you're FOS.

    Hands that may call/raise AK(12),KQs(2),AhQh(1),44(3),88(3),QQ(3),QhJh(1),Jh Th(1) = 26
    Hands that fold 22-33,55-77,99-JJ(45)

    So about 63% folds. So probably okay unless they decide to spite call you down. If you want a little more equity in spots like this, consider if the 8c had been the 8s you'd have quite a few turn cards that would benefit you.

  5. #5
    piv
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    Stu Ungar piv's Avatar
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    Default

    it's cool that you're trying to make plays and all but you've gotta make a few considerations instead of just raising

    firstly pre is a fold, the guy has 80bb so he's not observant (he would have reloaded pre), you're way behind ranges, i'm sure you don't know how to deal with Qxx flops with correct frequencies, and above he's a fucking 7/5

    think about your range when you c/r that flop. you can't have K8, so you can have two sets and Axhh, that's assuming you didn't lead them! i assume you auto 3b AK here and you can't c/r KQ for value vs this guy

    you also wanna size flop bigger with your whole range, 5-5.5 oop, 4.5 is ok ip, 4 is too small

    always hard to give advice for fullring because ranges are just so nitty and literally adding like one hand into a range can change everything.

  6. #6
    Fish
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    Default

    This is a good spot to mix up your play. I actually like your call pre-flop and I like the check raise, although I would check raise a little bigger next time to discourage calls from QQ-99.

  7. #7
    Fish Food Eleonora's Avatar
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    Default


  8. #8
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    Default

    Strongly agree.

  9. #9
    Fish Food
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by piv View Post
    it's cool that you're trying to make plays and all but you've gotta make a few considerations instead of just raising

    firstly pre is a fold, the guy has 80bb so he's not observant (he would have reloaded pre), you're way behind ranges, i'm sure you don't know how to deal with Qxx flops with correct frequencies, and above he's a fucking 7/5

    think about your range when you c/r that flop. you can't have K8, so you can have two sets and Axhh, that's assuming you didn't lead them! i assume you auto 3b AK here and you can't c/r KQ for value vs this guy

    you also wanna size flop bigger with your whole range, 5-5.5 oop, 4.5 is ok ip, 4 is too small

    always hard to give advice for fullring because ranges are just so nitty and literally adding like one hand into a range can change everything.

    Consider that the success rate necessary of a complete bluff is Bet/(Bet+Pot), so $4/($3.85+$4), or ~51%.

    So you think they fold >51% of the time?



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