Hey, just doing some hand analysis. Figure I'd show my work in case anyone sees any glaring holes or wants to see what I do. Math probably isn't perfect but I just need a good ballpark number most of the time. Thoughts are going to be kinda scattered as well.
Pretty standard situation, but it's good to checkup on things
$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight | fold when you know you're beat
Stacks:
UTG $9.43
UTG+1 $10.73
MP1 $11.12
MP2 $10.66
CO $5.24
Knightofnarg (BTN) $9.80
SB $9.70
BB $11.77
Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 8 players) Knightofnarg is BTN Th Jh
5 folds, Knightofnarg raises to $0.30, SB calls $0.25, 1 fold
Flop: Kh 4d 2c ($0.70, 2 players)
SB checks, Knightofnarg bets $0.40, SB folds
Final Pot: $1.10
Knightofnarg wins $1.07 (net +$0.37)
SB lost $0.30
3bb into 4.5 needs to work 66%
SB pretty tight, probably calls about 12%, BB tends to continue looser about 22% and 3bets sometimes. They fold combined about 68% of the time. So marginally +ev blindsteal by itself.
SB calls, range-
22-QQ(54),A9s+(18),KTs+(9),QTs+(6),JTs(3),ATo+(38),KJ o+(15)
he's pretty tight/passive postflop, negative minded (oh god I'm always beat) mindset. I doubt he's going to float PP's or weak TP's. No real draws out there. So he's continuing like 22&44(6), AK(12),KQ(12), and KJs(3) sometimes. So he continues 23%, 33 Hands out of 143
I bet 40 into 70, need like 36.3% folds and he actually folds 76%, so yay.
If he had continued I do have some good backdoor equity with any Q,9 card or any heart. If i double barrel he continues with 22,44,AK so 18 out of 33, 54%
Going to be 150, so i'll probably bet 80, gonna need 34.7% folds, i'm getting about 45.4%, maybe less if he folds KJs pre. I should still be pretty good as I'll draw the best river hand occasionally.
I don't think I'd double barrel on a Q though, it reduces the KQ possibilities a good amount, probably better just to check behind.
If he does lead turn I'll probably just call if I get good odds and stack his set on the river.
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Thread: KoN self analyzes some hands
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03-19-2011 #1
KoN self analyzes some hands
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