Hello to everyone, i am new here and i've been playing poker for 2 months now...Thx in advance for your help, so here we go!!!! Opponent stats: vp23, pr18, afq25% (40hands). Now i knew he didnt have set preflop cause he didnt reraise it on flop(any board) and he couldnt have (aa,kk,qq,jj) he would reraise preflop. I was putting him on 1010,99 or TPTK.

PartyGaming - $0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

MP: $4.02
CO: $4.04
BTN: $9.20
SB: $3.55
BB: $3.86
Hero (UTG): $3.81

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.04

Pre Flop: ($0.06) Hero has J:spade: Q:spade:

Hero raises to $0.16, MP calls $0.16, fold, BTN calls $0.16, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.54, 3 players) 5:club: 4:spade: 8:spade:
Hero bets $0.32, MP raises to $1.52, fold, Hero raises to $3.65 and is all-in, MP calls $2.13

Turn: ($7.84, 2 players) 2:heart:

River: ($7.84, 2 players) Q:diamond:

MP shows J:diamond: 8:diamond: (One Pair, Eights) (PreFlop 29%, Flop 53%, Turn 73%)
Hero shows J:spade: Q:spade: (One Pair, Queens) (PreFlop 71%, Flop 47%, Turn 27%)
Hero wins $7.45

I don't understand when you say he can't have a set here. He raised/called your shove, that could definitely be a set.

When you semibluff shove, how much fold equity do you feel you got?

I didnt think he had a set on flop because previously i saw him 2 times check call a raise with a set. And i thought i had 50% fold equity but that was just me :P. Thx for the reply.

I kinda like your shove here, you got a lot of equity against 99,TT,TPK. I wouldn't discount JJ or some sets entirely. You also block a lot of higher flushdraws he might call behind with, limiting it to maybe AsKs,AsTs (if he even plays them this way). You really don't need much fold equity with this semibluff, it so closely borders a valueshove to be honest.

Somehow I broke my semibluff shove calculator

Raising JQs UTG is fine 6max, sometimes even FR.

Semibluff shoving is kinda funny here since against range given we have 53% equity, so it actually counts as a thin valueshove, but if villain folds anything at all, that makes it far more +EV. There's also a bit of balance vs. the nitregs who will see you now as loose.

I'm not sure about the EV of flatting. You get like 1.98:1 odds to call, and if we count Q,J,spades as outs we have a 2.13:1 chance of hitting our hand, which is really thin, though there's some arguement for some implied odds.

Ok thx i see what you are saying, makes sence. I was just counting that OP would fold more often then he wouldnt and especially TPTK (i was wrong).

Originally Posted by KnightofNarg

I'm not sure about the EV of flatting. You get like 1.98:1 odds to call, and if we count Q,J,spades as outs we have a 2.13:1 chance of hitting our hand, which is really thin, though there's some arguement for some implied odds.

I dont think really that u have good implied odds here cause if a spade comes do u really think they would continue the aggression with 1010, TPTK or whatever it is? My guess is that the best play here is shove or fold the reraise. what do u think?