Good spot to overbet bluff?

**Kidsoldja** · 07-06-2010

I have a reasonable amount of history with this villain-about 3200 hands. He is a pretty decent TAG (20/16 with cbet% of 49/67/56 on the flop/turn/river) in my opinion who knows I don't like to play really big pots unless I have a very good hand. Moreover, if he has been paying careful attention he might have picked up that if I make a big hand on the river I almost always lead out OOP instead of going for the checkraise. Therefore, he should know that I almost never have a 5 in this spot and that I am pot controlling with a decent hand like AJ/KJ.

Full Tilt Poker $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players

BTN: $26.19
SB: $29.52
Hero (BB): $25.86
UTG: $27.10

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with J

A

1 fold, CO raises to $0.85, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.80) 2

6

J

(2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $1.25, Hero calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.30) 4

(2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $3.00, Hero calls $3

River: ($10.30) 3

(2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $35.50,

**breathoflife89** · 07-07-2010

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/69...-bluff-822588/

I think they have the answer.

**WeakTight** · 07-07-2010

underrepping a mediocre hand = sticky situations.

**Desiderata** · 07-07-2010

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**azeldin** · 07-07-2010

Originally Posted by Desiderata

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**DanDan65** · 07-14-2010

You kinda left yourself open for that one

**PokerPhotog** · 05-14-2011

I think anytime you play OOP passively your setting yourself up for multiple difficult decisions....which is never good.

**Aces-o-8s** · 05-14-2011

Originally Posted by PokerPhotog

I think anytime you play OOP passively your setting yourself up for multiple difficult decisions....which is never good.

Agree^^^^

TPTK on the turn is still only one pair and a small hand but often enough ahead on a board like that - lead out or ck-raise. CO will tell you quick enough if you're behind a set. Letting this go to the river w/ck-c gives you no more info than you had on the flop (where a ck-r isn't a bad thing either).
B/c you tagged this guy as TAG I don't think that flop helped him unless he was playing 22 or 66 and b/c he continued to bet the Turn I think he has to have at least a Jx and is figuring you for a flush draw, 2nd pair or a weaker Jack. All-in bet on the river certainly looks like he's trying to force you off the hand but.....

Played as it was you're now calling all-in with no idea of what he has or hasn't and still with only one pair. Online and especially at these micro limits, all-in bluffs or with the nuts are frequent and although usually associated with a LAG, I've fallen victim to more solid players pulling the same overbet strategy to great success even at higher stakes and in live games.

Usually I think it's a fold vs a TAG. Vs a TAG I might even let him know that I was laying down TPTK (normally not recommended) and comment that I hope he had it beat and threw away his value bet. I don't know if this would necessarily cause him to dial back all-in shoves in the future with his strong hands but I hoping to plant that seed.

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