My 3rd hand on the table so no reads. Turn is super standard, but what about PF, flop, and river? Is my thought process good, or am I still giving too much credit?

My river call is based on the following assumptions about unknown NL2 players...

1. They either limp/call or spaz out PF with pocket pairs
2. They think Ax is the nuts PF
3. Minraises are usually weaker hands PF, but strength later on
4. Minbets are either really weak hands, or followed by a shove when raised.

PokerStars No Limit Hold-em, Big Blind is $0.02 (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from triple-t
(Format: PokerForums.org)

saw flop|saw showdown

Hero ($2.01)
SB ($5)
Villain ($2.84)
UTG ($2)
MP ($4.02)
Hero is Button with .
Villain is BB.
Pre-Flop:
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.06, 1 folds, Villain raises to $0.10, Hero calls.

Standard raise OTB. I call simply because villain could be playing back against a potential steal, plus I have position.

Flop: (Pot=$0.21) (2 players)
Villain bets $0.02, Hero raises to $0.20, Villain calls.

This is my standard play against minbets in a raised pot. I obviously fold to any decent sized raise.

Turn: (Pot=$0.61) (2 players)
Villain checks, Hero bets $0.55, Villain calls.

Hit my gutter and make a value bet big enough to get all-in on the river as I have $1.16 behind.

River: (Pot=$1.71) (2 players)
Villain bets $1.99 All-In, Hero calls All-In.

WTF? His shove makes no sense whatsoever. Not too many players at NL2 3-bet PF with any hand that that 5 just hit... even Q5s. Q9 and QT aren't all that likely either because I think he checkraises me either on the turn or river with those holdings. The way he played this hand, this shove polarized his range, imo. I think I'm against TT, 99, AA, KK, JJ, or random bluffs. I'm ahead of that range and getting almost 2.5 to 1 so I don't think I can fold this.

EDIT: Maybe I'm discounting Qx holdings way too much. But if we add the likely ones (Q9-QA), it doesn't change my equity much.

If his range is 99+, I'm 63%
99+, Q9+ = 62.7%
99+, Qx = 76%

.

Standard raise OTB. I call simply because villain could be playing back against a potential steal, plus I have position.

More over we call because he is giving us AMAZING odds to see a flop.

On the river I call and expect to be beat some of the time and ahead of badly played AA, KK, JJ and over played queens a lot. He has AQ, KQ, QJs, AA, KK and JJ I'd say more often than he has a boat but he'll have a boat some of the time too.

Did we see TT in this case?

Broker

Originally Posted by Brokerstar

.


More over we call because he is giving us AMAZING odds to see a flop.

On the river I call and expect to be beat some of the time and ahead of badly played AA, KK, JJ and over played queens a lot. He has AQ, KQ, QJs, AA, KK and JJ I'd say more often than he has a boat but he'll have a boat some of the time too.

Did we see TT in this case?

Broker

4 to 1 are amazing odds to see a flop in position.

I do expect to see a boat on the river sometimes, but I didn't feel like he had one in this case. The players at NL2 just aren't that good at extracting chips. They'll usually let us know on the turn what they have, either by check-minraising, or check-shoving. As a matter of fact, I'm more scared of a check-shove on the river than a donk shove, but if he checks, I shove the river anyway.

No, he didn't have TT. I'll post results later today.

I think his river shove is 95% of the time for value but yeah you beat enough of his value hands like AA KK AQ KQ that you have to call.

Min 3bet pre, minbet flop then slowplay and then panic shove river smells like AA for my guess.

Originally Posted by WotaWaster

I think his river shove is 95% of the time for value but yeah you beat enough of his value hands like AA KK AQ KQ that you have to call.

Min 3bet pre, minbet flop then slowplay and then panic shove river smells like AA for my guess.

That's what I was thinking. If the river is A-9, I'd definitely have to tank as all those cards help his range, and most of them would tip my decision to a fold.

How likely do we see something like a busted straight draw + pair (like JT or J9)? Or what about hands like AK?

I don't really think we can assume he is 3betting JT/J9 yet. AK is a hand that donks love to spaz out with so I wouldn't be too surprised to see that here.

Originally Posted by jharding666

I don't really think we can assume he is 3betting JT/J9 yet. AK is a hand that donks love to spaz out with so I wouldn't be too surprised to see that here.

I didn't think he'd have them, which is why they weren't in the assigned range, but I don't think we can discount them completely.

Anyway, for those who are wondering about what he had...

Spoiler

Fist pump and call river imo.

Originally Posted by piv

sigh and call river

Originally Posted by KRE8R

Fist pump and call river imo.

My call was closer to a fist pump, but not quite.