Has the tilt just sent me crazy or can I justify this?

History with this villain. He is a 24/15, I 3bet him earlier in position and checked flop and turn, folding to his river bet.

BossMedia Game #1788736828: Table Table TH 7553 - €0.50/€1.00 - No Limit Hold'em - 13:19:10 - 2009/09/26
Seat 1: Perten (€35.01)
Seat 2: Hero (€99.50)
Seat 3: crackLiNg (€349.12)
Seat 5: jelliz (€112.75)
Seat 4: JusuQ82 (€127.95)
crackLiNg posts the small blind of €0.50
JusuQ82 posts the big blind of €1.00
Hero is the button
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [ ]
jelliz raises €3.50
Perten folds
Hero raises €12.00
crackLiNg folds
JusuQ82 folds
jelliz calls €12.00
*** FLOP *** [ ]
jelliz checks
Hero bets €16.00
jelliz raises €42.00
Hero goes all-in with €87.50

€83.50 in the pot when I shove, final pot will be €200.50 when called, my shove is for an extra €71.50.


I have 30% equity against 99+ therefore when called I lose €11.35, (200.5*30%)-71.50

Therefore we can find the breakeven fold percentage by solving the following:

x(83.5) +(1-x)(-11.35) = 0

we get a breakeven fold % of 12%, the question is, does he EVER fold?

Can someone please also point out whether I've made any fundamental errors in my calc?

Originally Posted by piv

your madness is ok, he will do this with AQ/KQ and fold to a jam occasionally

Was my maths ok?

Originally Posted by jharding666

Was my maths ok?

I got that he needed to fold 11.9% of the time for the play to be breakeven, so your maths were ok.

I think it's spewy without proper history. If he's been active in 3bet pots postflop then fair enough. But with no read it's just pure guesswork.

I also wouldn't 3bet that hand pre.

Originally Posted by davidab157

I also wouldn't 3bet that hand pre.

Care to explain?

Last time I tried something like this I got called by 56 and lost anyway.

I don't hate your play, the slightly above minraise in his shoes is definitely the sort of raise I would make as a bluff. You would think a hand happy to get all in flat calls this bet pretty often to let you fire again. It's a bit hopeful with no reads whatsoever but it also isn't impossible he does this with TJ/88 to "find out where he's at" and folds to a shove. I think he probably folds 12%.

Originally Posted by jharding666

Care to explain?

It's just a hand I don't like to light 3bet with. I think dominated situations come up too often and there are more tricky spots.

If I'm doing something like that against a villain I perceive to be active I'd prefer a hand that when I flop something, I'm shipping it in. So something like T9s where I'm probably in less trouble when a T or a 9 flops as opposed to A5s where we're really only bluffing at it, or hitting some miracle flop.

Granted you pwn them when you flop 2 pair, but I don't think that happens often enough.

just me though, not saying it's bad.