So Ive been at a table a while and have seen some more than erratic play from the guy on my right, i guess it was one of those situations where i was waiting to hit a hand vs them so i could make a big score, but anyway. My read on them says they're loose and like to bluff, e.g. raising 84o OOP pre, then showing it once everyone had folded. Also raising to 31 BBs pre with J9s because it was their "favourite hand".

6-max ring game:


Villain is UTG and limps the flop
I'm mid position and pick up so I open to 20c preflop.
Action goes around, i pick up three callers - the two blinds and the guy UTG (pot 80c). Then the flop comes down:



I flop bottom set, but on a dangerous board. Both the blinds check, and UTG makes a standard looking bluff overbet of $1.50 - he's been doing this and taking down a lot of pots recently. Both blinds checking makes this look to me like a steal attempt - i havent contested any pots with him recently and i doubt he was expecting much contention from the blinds.

I'm at the table now down to $4.80, and I reasoned that a call here is horrible since i'll have to fold most turns to a big bet. I also don't see much room for a modest raise with my stack size and so decide that my action had to be ship/fold. My line of thought from here was thus:

Situation 1: He's making an outrageous bluff with air, or possibly something like A8 having hit top pair. Perfectly feasible, and if this is the case my shove either folds him out or i get a call and am miles ahead. I pretty much ruled out big pairs here because something like AA/KK/QQ he wouldve made an outrageous 3-bet pre rather than flatting.

Situation 2: He's spazzing out on some hand like 89, 99 or 55, or has hit a combination of two pair hands like 87. The flop is dangerous here and he's probably looking to take it down. Again here i figure that a ship may encourage a fold, or he'll call and be behind my set.

Situation 3: He's hit the straight. I figure 9Ts makes up a small fraction of his range, and something like 45s even smaller, although being very loose its possible he called pre with either of those hands. If this is the case i'm behind, but i'm only a 2-to-1 dog, and ruling out a cold decked set over set this is the worst case scenario.

So i ship it, he snaps it up, and what do you know he had 45 off-suit and i miss my full house outs. Whilst to me my reasoning seemed solid-ish, i'm still a learning player and i'm wondering whether this shouldve just been an easy fold. I had only committed 20c at this stage and a fold wouldve kept my remaining $4.80 or whatever safe for another, more favourable hand. I was getting impatient and maybe shouldve waited longer for a more secure flop, but this looked like my chance to take him down and i took it.

Solid reasoning. I don't think it's a bad move. You thought it out and thought of possible scenarios, plus if he had flopped the straight you still had outs to win.

Thats reassuring to hear, thanks. As i said my play's still a little shaky in places and in cases like these its hard not to succumb to ROT and start doubting myself heh.