NL50 AKo... from glory corner.

**Maf1889** · 03-20-2009

Ok, you guys gave me crap for this hand.

Villain is a 22/17/3, calls PF 3-bet 40% (as of now atleast).

How do you play it from here?

Full Tilt No Limit Hold-em, Big Blind is $0.50 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from triple-t
(Format: PokerForums.org)

saw flop|saw showdown

Villain ($82.20)
MP3 ($210.65)
CO ($100.50)
Hero ($50)
SB ($19.15)
BB ($58.65)
UTG ($69.75)
UTG+1 ($100.95)
MP1 ($107.60)
Hero is Button with

.
Villain is MP2.
Pre-Flop:
3 folds, Villain raises to $1.75, 2 folds, Hero raises to $6, 2 folds, Villain calls.

Flop: (Pot=$12.75)

(2 players)
Villain bets $7.50

**in4rehab** · 03-20-2009

I don't know what your stats are but I'm probably folding here. The leads makes me think villain is set mining and missed, drawing to a flush or playing something like 89s and is testing you out incase you were raising with high cards and is most likely hoping for a fold. If your image is super tight a shove could be in order as you look like you have 99+ or AsKs but it would be very read dependent and not a move to be made lightly.

**MJPerry** · 03-21-2009

If villain isn't retarded then he's not going to want his opponents out when he has a pair and thinks they have high cards, he wants them in and paying him off.

**in4rehab** · 03-21-2009

Originally Posted by MJPerry

If villain isn't retarded then he's not going to want his opponents out when he has a pair and thinks they have high cards, he wants them in and paying him off.

This is sound logic but I'm not sure of how many players out there are thinking along these lines. If villain is that sure he is ahead then why isn't he checking and looking to c/raise a cbet instead of inviting maf to fold without putting more money in the pot?

**Xopods** · 03-21-2009

Donklead looks like a flush draw, air, or 66-88 to me. Against that range, you want to shove... however, some players will be on a set, A9s or overpair here, and are scared of you checking behind on this draw-heavy board. Also, some donks will bet 66-88 here, thinking they're betting for information, but then convince themselves you're bluffing when you shove and call anyway.

I often fold to these donkleads when all I have is overcards, reasoning that in the long run, the guy is donating a lot of money to my overpairs/NFDs by bluffing at these flops... but it always leaves a bad taste in my mouth and makes me wish I shoved more often. Of course, when I do shove, I almost invariably get called by 66-88 and hit my 6-outer precisely 0% of the time.

The fact that you have the As is relevant here. It makes it much less likely that he has a flush draw, which is bad for you... but it does give you the backdoor flush draw (equivalent to one extra out against a hand that beats you) and puts you in considerably better shape if he does have a flush draw himself.

You're about 25-28% against a pocket pair, which is his most likely holding if he calls. That isn't too terrible, slightly better than 3-1. Treating it as 25%, that means shoving and getting called by a PP costs you $18.80, statistically speaking (0.25 x $56.75 - 0.75 x $44). Meanwhile, shoving and getting a fold makes you $20.25. Thus, if he folds to your shove 50% of the time, shoving is +0.71$ EV, which is pretty close to break-even, given the pot size. You're a little better than 25% to win against a PP, sometimes you'll be called by A9 or a set and be in worse trouble, but sometimes you'll be called by a donk with KsQs or AxKs and be a favourite, or only a little bit of a dog to 8s7s or 7s6s. Because all these things are less likely, I'm inclined to assume they just cancel out and that 50% is really the key number for you... if you think you're making him fold more than half the time, you're +EV to shove.

**22Fish** · 03-21-2009

I don't people will donklead / fold 50% of the time, because they will often convince themselves that 66-88/9Ts is good here. Expect to see AA/KK occasionally.

**piv** · 03-21-2009

omg its fr he has an overpair and he's not folding

**Dizzy_Fuzz** · 03-22-2009

I fold to that bet. Board sucks and I want to wait for a better spot. Mind you I hate full ring!!

**breathoflife89** · 03-22-2009

I would just fold there. There's better spots to make money.

**in4rehab** · 03-25-2009

I fold here too, but that's not to say I never ever shove hands like this. Although villain is 99% ahead here he looks to me like he's trying to take this pot down without getting pot committed. Hero could justifiably throw $44 at this $20 pot if he thinks he's >70% sure of taking it down. This is possible with really good judgement.

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