Low set, not confident

sb944 · #1 (**permalink**) 05-14-2008, 08:54 PM

Villian is 24/21/3, no real reads , but obviously button isolation raise can't be from a really tight range, but given his aggression I can only hope to hit the flop and he likes it. He doesn't, so it's time to extract whatever value I can manage from the turn. I did mean to keep the bet small, just not quite thise small, not sure why it ended up $4. I figured AK was being too tight for how the action has gone done, but I just didn't see him minraising with worse than me, and that was the hand that stuck in my head.

Is there any point getting it in here, or should I call it down, maybe call here fold a big river bet? My instincts told me to call it down and hope for the best, but I'm still not sure what I'm beating when he raises the turn.

$0.25/$0.50 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG gina0073 ($50.00)
CO RaffaeleS6 ($14.75)
BTN Mordimer_M ($51.05)
SB Hero ($57.00)
BB mr.Orloff ($50.00)
[gina0073 posted $0.50]

Pre-flop: ($1.25, 5 players) Hero is SB

gina0073 checks, RaffaeleS6 calls $0.50, Mordimer_M bets $2.75, Hero calls $2.50, 1 fold, gina0073 folds, RaffaeleS6 calls $2.25.

Flop:

($9.25, 3 players)
Hero checks, RaffaeleS6 checks, Mordimer_M checks

Turn:

($9.25, 3 players)
Hero bets $4, 1 fold, Mordimer_M bets $10, Hero ???

youngplayer9 · #2 (**permalink**) 05-14-2008, 09:07 PM

If you are not going to play this hand like the nuts fold PF. He probably had the straight but thats what you HAVE to bet the flop unless you are going to be able to go over the hand real quick and realize he has AK, because to me it seems sfobv that he has AK right now. He made a 3x+1bb per limper raise PF and then checked behind in a multiway pot where he had a gutshot, seems reasonable to me. Bet that flop as played call turn and bet river. 25~$ ish( my bet sizing sucks so wait for more replies)

MJPerry · #3 (**permalink**) 05-14-2008, 11:51 PM

I never ever check this flop, it's far too drawy.

RakeGuard.Com · #4 (**permalink**) 05-15-2008, 12:08 AM

Definitely bet that flop next time. As played, you're not getting away from this on the turn. Call his raise, and if he does have a straight, you still have 10 outs on the river to suck out with.

sb944 · #5 (**permalink**) 05-15-2008, 01:38 AM

Anyone else for leading the flop. I pretty much always let the original raiser do the betting for me with sets, but I'd be willing to put some thought into donk leading when I hit my set. My thoughts were he'd cbet ATC here, but either he's hit a better set, is stupidly slowlplaying AA/KK or is getting timid with AK, as he thinks for sure one of us has hit top pair. I'm not really big against that range on the turn for sure (assuming one of those after the turn reraise of course).

This isn't really a drawy board either, if he hits a 4 outer, there isn't much I can do, but only T9/KT has any sort of solid draw here, and even those would be weak drawing hands here.

OrionPro · #6 (**permalink**) 05-15-2008, 01:49 AM

Just calling looks good. I'd block bet if a club falls. That way you can control how much you pay to see his AK.

MJPerry · #7 (**permalink**) 05-15-2008, 02:18 AM

If the board pairs with a non-club he'll probably pay you off a little on the river if he has AK.

piv · #8 (**permalink**) 05-15-2008, 03:00 AM

sb - how do you play top pair in this spot?

davidab157 · #9 (**permalink**) 05-15-2008, 08:25 AM

He won't cbet his whole range here cos the shorty is in the pot aswell. If he leads it's likely a strong hand. I would bet out this flop in the hope that the shorty folds allowing the villain to get tricky and raise some marginal hands without the fear of pot committing himself with air against the 30bb stack.

Actually I prefer a fold preflop cos this guy is obv semi decent and will know to iso raise the fish, probably giving him a fairly wide range making it very difficult to get paid postflop OOP. Also with a shorty in postflop he's less likely to get out of line.

Bet at least $6 on turn.

As played I call and evaluate river.

bluffwithoutcuase · #10 (**permalink**) 05-16-2008, 03:07 AM

Bet the flop - you need to make it expensive for someone with a draw to call for me 4-5 BBs would do it and if they have got trips and just checked wear it thats poker. Maybe I'm too loose but that looks like a classic bluff to me, I would want to push big and maybe I would lose but maybe not.