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But then he isn't calling with KJ off (preflop)? Making it much more likely he has AK or AJ. If he has AQ it's a cooler, TT may flat but that's only 1 hand.
I think we easily win 50% or more of the time here pushing flop.
It's an interesting hand though since there isn't many flush draws in his range.
Even if he has decent preflop stats he can still be a tool postflop.
However, even if we give him a "reasonable" flop range you guys are just drastically underestimating our equity and the flop and the turn.
I suck with pokerstove so am having problems but we are a favorite vs A10+.
Board: Ah Qs Ts
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.350% 41.99% 06.36% 7482 1134.00 { ATo+ }
Hand 1: 51.650% 45.29% 06.36% 8070 1134.00 { AsTh }
Adding in sets changes very little as given that we have 2 pair it is extremely unlikely that he has a set. He will ocassionaly have KJ here but I can't imagine that drops our equity below 40%. Now if you allow him to semi bluff ocassionally with pairs + gutshots, KK, JJ then we are suddenly ahead by a decent amount.
Folding the turn is even more insane. We have 4 FH outs, 9 nut flush outs, 3 nut str8 outs, for 17 outs total. Even if none of our FH outs are good we have 13 outs for 27% equity. How on earth can you guys even consider folding the turn. We have straight up odds to call. against the range of AJ+ getting 2.6:1.
Board: Ah Qs Ts Ks
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.617% 66.56% 04.06% 410 25.00 { AJo+ }
Hand 1: 29.383% 25.32% 04.06% 156 25.00 { AsTh }
IF someone who knows how to work pokerstove wants to redo this with more accurate ranges they are welcome to but hopefully this makes it clear how bad folding is.
dump it on the flop, Kj is a real possibility. I think you can find clearer better places to put your money in. + his raise suggests to me your going to face a big descion on the turn,
So id fold but then if he does it to much start to look him up a bit more.
As for turn meh god knows! id probably pray n call.
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