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Go Back PokerForums.org > Strategy Discussion > Ring Hand Analysis > A7s combo draw on turn

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  #1 ()  
Old 05-12-2008, 02:43 PM
River Rat
 
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Default A7s combo draw on turn

Villain is 26/7/1, but his aggression has gone up recently quite a bit. He was calling/folding everything earlier now he seems to be raising more.

I don't generally like seeing a CR on such a dry board, but hope it's A8/TT/JJ/bluff/draw, where I have plenty of outs still. 88/66/22/86 are possibilities here of course. I figure I'll see a turn card cheaply and get it in if it turns out good.

So it's not so good, but improves me just the same. I now have OESD (probably to the nutz here), nut flush draw, and possibly an overcard with the ace. Basically the call is just barely OK against TP/overpair/two pair, but seems to be bad against trips/made straight for pot odds.

$0.25/$0.50 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($60.20)
Hero ($45.65)
BTN ($54.70)
SB ($90.50)
BB ($37.65)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 5 players) Hero is CO
1 fold, Hero bets $2, BTN calls $2, SB calls $1.75, 1 fold

Flop: ($6.5, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4, BTN calls $4, SB bets $10, Hero calls $6, BTN folds

Turn: ($30.5, 2 players)
SB bets $50, Hero ???
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  #2 ()  
Old 05-12-2008, 02:49 PM
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I just 3bet flop, you've got good equity and should have FE as well.
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Old 05-12-2008, 03:45 PM
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pokerstove.com
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Old 05-13-2008, 05:35 AM
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he almost never has a straight here imho, and your blocks combo draws as well.

pokerstove with the sets and other hands you think he could be having.
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Old 05-13-2008, 05:44 AM
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22, 66, 88, 99, TT, maybe higher than TT but that's a 3-bet preflop pretty often.

75, T7, 98, 86...
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Old 05-13-2008, 06:59 AM
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at work so no pokerstove

but as orion said, he doesn't have the straight and I'd guess that you have an edge against his range of 22/66/88/flush draw/combo draws like JTcc

so stick it in and ride the gambooooool train to variancetown
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Old 05-13-2008, 07:36 AM
Stu Ungar
 
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If you set/combo draw it he looks like this.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

704 games 0.029 secs 24,275 games/sec

Board: 6c 8c 2h 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.659% 34.66% 00.00% 244 0.00 { Ac7c }
Hand 1: 65.341% 65.34% 00.00% 460 0.00 { 9d9h, 9d9s, 9h9s, 8d8h, 8d8s, 8h8s, 6d6h, 6d6s, 6h6s, 2d2h, 2d2s, 2h2s, JcTc, Jc9c, Tc9c, 9d8d, 9h8h, 9s8s, 8d6d, 8h6h, 8s6s, 7c5c }

But I'm the worst range-assigner ever so take that with a pinch of salt.
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Old 05-13-2008, 09:18 AM
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even with MJPerry's range above (of which I'd probably discount 7c5c and add in more suited overcard type hands like KcQc and toss in a few naked OESDs, which would increase your edge) you're at 34% which is still breakeven percentage based on the immediate pot odds

BEP = 1/(Pot Odds(1.90639)+1) = 34.4%




imo
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Old 05-13-2008, 10:06 AM
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This discussion is proof itself of why we just get it in on the flop.

As played, I think it's probably a fold. You're just about getting the odds against a very generous range (J9 type hands) but his line is strong so I'd tip it towards a tighter one.
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Old 05-13-2008, 11:26 AM
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getting in on the flop is bad
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