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Go Back PokerForums.org > Strategy Discussion > Ring Hand Analysis > A7s combo draw on turn

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  #11 (permalink)  
Old 05-13-2008, 12:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezyplayer View Post
getting in on the flop is bad
Why?

Sure having the BTN in the hand as well isn't ideal but if the raiser here is seemingly playing aggro we figure to have decent fold equity to a 3bet while never being in horrible shape if we do end up playing for stacks.

I also think some 89 type hands will fold enough on the flop while most probably shoving turn if we just call flop (obv 89 will but also A8 hands).

If we call, how likely is he to give us a free card when effective stacks are pot sized pretty much? I think you get shoved on loads on the turn and it sucks to be calling and then folding turn unless you hit the flush. btw I think it is a fold on the turn cos his range will be reasonably strong here. And if you are calling the turn, I doubt he's bluffing THAT often in which case you may as well have gone for some fold equity on the flop.

That bad thinking squeezy? It may well be, I'm very rusty at the moment
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  #12 (permalink)  
Old 05-13-2008, 12:29 PM
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i mean, people can do some weird shit sometimes, but it just seems very unlikely to me that villain would make such a small c/r-over 2 players no less-with any hand that he didnt want to stack off with. sure, stuff like T8 can be in his range also, but it is very heavily weighted towards strong hands.

futhermore, we are getting great odds to chase our flush given how small he raised on the flop. we're getting better than 4:1 directly, and almost certainly good implied odds as well. there's also a not insignificant chance that BTN has clubs as well, in which case we really don't want him to get chased out of the pot.

shoving flop certainly isnt terrible, and might even be marginally +EV. i just think that calling is better.
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Old 05-13-2008, 02:10 PM
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Yeah, OP you said he was raising more, how was his raise sizing? Was it always 2.5x kind of size or did it change?
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Old 05-13-2008, 07:25 PM
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We have a decent draw and could see a turn for cheap. I say call flop and get away from any card on turn that doesnt help. His turn bet here makes me fold it quick.
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Old 05-13-2008, 09:15 PM
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Turn is a fold
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Old 05-13-2008, 09:21 PM
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Standard raise size for him from memory. He was a 1/2 pot lead bettor, 2-2.5x min-raiser.
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Old 05-13-2008, 09:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tightagressive View Post
Turn is a fold
I agree.

Results wise, he over-repped his hand quite a bit, but he was actually only JJ. More often than not this will be the set he's repping, sometimes even a straight, but in this case I just barely had pot odds to call the turn.
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