Tough fold, did I screw this up or make a smart decision?
Ok here's the situation...
9 player SnG
4 players left
I am chip leader with about 4,400 chips. Second has 4,100. Third about half of my stack, fourth a third of my stack. Roughly those are just off-the-top-of-my-head guesses. Top three are paid (standard).
I raise with QQ, about 4x BB which was pretty large. Actually may have been almost 5x BB. Second in chips raises me all-in back. He has not shown this kind of aggression before to me or while I was watching him, at least. I mean I didn't have reason to believe he was 1) On tilt, 2) Angry I raised (there was someone else who had already called the BB too), 3) Etc.
I thought about it for about ten seconds. Reluctantly, and I've never folded this hand in my life before to be honest, I folded. Maybe I should give backstory that already today my QQ ran into KK and I busted out of a tournament early with that. There are three hands I won't fold pre-flop in normal circumstances, QQ, KK, and AA. This was such an unusual circumstance because if I was low stack, I call this in a second and am happy to see I have action, thinking probably I'm winning. If I'm third in chips I definitely still call. But considering we were both equal in chips almost, at least him winning the hand would take me out of the tournament for all practical purposes, I folded.
He claims I made a bad laydown. I believe that even if his hand was only A-K offsuit, my 57% chance to win or whatever it is (not that much better than a coinflip I know that) was not worth the risk of losing the $9 minimum I'd make from cashing in this $5.50 tournament. I also thought that such a strong move must represent AA or KK, maybe also QQ (who knows?) because I've rarely ever seen a player do that and risk his own tournament life when he's comfortably in the money as it stands just for the chance that maybe you fold. Also, I'm not a highly aggressive player, so my raise was unusual. I should add that information because I wasn't constantly stealing blinds. I also frequently show my hands when people fold, especially when I raise pre-flop. I don't show the A-8 I raised with to steal blinds, but I show the A-J suiteds, the A-Ks, the pocket 10s, etc. So in their minds they may think I always raise with at least solid hands because when I don't, I don't show, and I show more than half of the time.
So I could play Devil's Advocate to my own decision -- if I had called, and won, I would have taken out 2nd in chips and given myself such a prohibitive edge in the tournament I almost certainly would have won it.
But my strong feeling was that even something as lousy as A-7 offsuit could still just hit an ace and beat me, heck even K-2 offsuit could hit the K and beat me and I didn't want to gamble it up when I felt I would cash for sure in this tournament.
Now let me add the post-script to this hand...
I gained some chips back, 3rd in chips pushed all-in, 4th called, I was holding A-Q. Usually I fold in this situation, let those two duke it out and maybe we're down to 3 after. Plus A-Q is foldable. I look and see that if I call, I have 1,200 chips left if I lose. If 3rd in chips wins, it's down to 3 players and I cash anyway, which is acceptable. If 4th in chips wins then I'm still 3rd because the previous 3rd moves down to about 600 chips left. I still probably cash in 3rd. If *I* win I take the chip lead heads up and have odds to win the tournament. I call. I see I'm in bad shape, against A-K suited and A-9 from lowest in chips, but that's good in the sense that I should definitely cash if no 9 or spades come up. I hit a miracle runner-runner flush with my queen (nobody else had a club) and win the hand. First hand heads-up, pocket 7s, I raise, get raised back, call and see he has J-K, same dude who pushed me off QQ, obviously thought I was going to fold anything. He hit the jack, I hit my set on the turn. Tournament over. [As another aside I had AA in this tournament and called an all-in, KK, and we both hit the set on the flop, lol, ouch...]
Did I catch some luck at the end? Absolutely. But the question I have is how do YOU play QQ in that exact situation. I don't believe there is necessarily a right and a wrong but I want to hear from people because that was honestly one of the toughest decisions I've had to make playing poker so far. Just because of the chip situation and the hand. KK? I call. AA? Duh! lol. JJ? Not a hard fold for me honestly.
I should add that I don't in any way think that because I won the tournament I "did the right thing," but I have my justifications for each of those hands. I usually play for 3rd or 1st, because the difference between 1st and 2nd is much larger than 2nd and 3rd, thus why the A-Q call -- figured I had very very good odds of cashing in 3rd, and if I won the hand 2nd. In retrospect seeing I was up against such a premium hand as A-K it would have been the correct move to fold, of course. That player was on tilt after losing to a very bad beat (runner-runner) and had started pushing all-in every other hand, which is why I thought A-Q was a premium hand. I'm honestly agonizing over that entire tournament despite the outcome because two of those last hands were just brutal.
Last edited by JonathanLB; 03-11-2008 at 12:21 AM.
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