Villian is a 11/8/3 large sample size

Normally I would 4bet vs this type of villian but this 1 I belive 3bets me a bit lighter then he would most and is totally aware that I know that he is a nit so I think he would literally fold everything besides Q/Q A/K A/A K/K to me and possibley Q/Q/A/K but I doubt he would when I raise from Lp.

Obv I really didnt like this flop, my question is if Villian is never 2 barrell bluffing (which I dont think he double barrels if ever) I can safely fold to a turn bet which I intended to do if he bet? Is that theory correct?


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP1 ($254.70)
MP2 ($221.40)
MP3 ($84.75)
Hero ($194)
Button ($196)
SB ($503.45)
BB ($197)
UTG ($84.20)
UTG+1 ($124.95)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K, K.
5 folds, Hero raises to $8, 2 folds, BB raises to $27, Hero calls $19.

Flop: ($55) Q, T, 8 (2 players)
BB bets $33, Hero calls $33.

Turn: ($121) 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($121) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $54, BB folds.

Final Pot: $121

If he doesn't fire AQ twice and doesn't fire twice with bluffs then I think you can fold the turn safely. I think I prefer raising the flop, after all you have under-repped the hand by calling the 3bet and the board is drawy enough he could put you on some marginal hands. And if you're playing the style we've seen in the past then you have to stick it in cos you're likely getting no credit for a hand.

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Yeah I hear you i just feel this villian only calls with Q/k and A/Q or hands that have me beat.

Played perfect imo

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I like your thought process/analysis. Maybe I'd check behind on the river.

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ICM / EV Calculator and other free poker software

Why there is so much value in betting the river?

Maybe- what hands you plan to get called with or fold out?

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ICM / EV Calculator and other free poker software

Are you fucking with me?

Just answer the question. Or don't post hands here if you don't want any discussion.

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ICM / EV Calculator and other free poker software

These two post seam contradictory. What do you expect that he has and will call a 1/2 pot bet that you still beat? Or maybe the meaning of the term "value bet" has been changed and I didnt get the memo

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