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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 02-24-2008, 07:41 PM
piv's Avatar
piv piv is offline
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Default NL25 TPGK vs TAG

Read/notes etc...

-Villain is 20/18/4 over about 100 hands, very solid guy who 3bets me light (3bet me CO raise OTB with JTo and got called a by a shorty).
-I've had a hot run of cards so my stats are 33/28/4, he views me as super agro but knows I have a fold button
-I have just 4bet pot a few hands ago over his 3bet and he folds, so he knows I can play back
-He is definitely capable of making moves

$0.15/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight | fold when you know you're beat (BETA)

Stacks:
UTG ($7.65)
CO ($4.30)
Hero ($25.10)
SB ($28.75)
BB ($22.05)

Pre-flop: ($0.4, 5 players) Hero is BTN
UTG calls $0.25, 1 fold, Hero bets $1.25, SB calls $1.10, 1 fold, UTG folds

Flop: ($3, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.25, SB bets $7, Hero calls $4.75.

Turn: ($17, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($17, 2 players)
SB goes all-in $20.50, Hero folds

Final Pot: $37.50
Hero shows: Q:club: K:club:

SB wins $36.65 ( won $7.9 )
UTG lost -$0.25
Hero lost -$8.25

My analysis...

-He is capable of 3betting pre but hasn't, so I think TT+ is way less likely.
-Range leans more towards 55/Qx and flush draws, plus some random air like 77-99

I didn't really have a plan what to do after I've called or what I'm repping, but folding seemed too weak on a drawy board.

Once turn basically bricks, he has monsters, draws and bluffs. He views me as pretty agro, but if I actually had a hand like Axdd/sets/top two I'd be shoving flop for protection+value, so I shouldn't ever really have a monster here.

Turn confuses me the most. He views me as agro so expects me to fire twice a lot, but I'm repping a weak hand that should check behind. I obviously can't fold better and nothing worse calls + don't want to be randomly shoving so I checked behind.

He shoves river and I'm like and time down. My flop and turn line now looks weak as so he can turn all his draws into bluffs, but I still beat none of his made hands, and obviously need a pretty good reason to stack off with a pair.

Halp ?
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  #2 (permalink)  
Old 02-24-2008, 08:04 PM
KRE8R's Avatar
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Location: Portland, OR
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Default

I would be surprised if he shoved like that on a missed draw thinking your hand was thin. If he did then he is pretty good. I honestly think he must have you beat to be shoving the river. I wouldnt be surprised if he had 88 and got lucky. He seems intuitive enough to bet like that thinking you would make it for a missed draw bluff bet. For some reason it looks like a value shove on his part. Very difficult to say. I dont have a problem with finding a call here though with your previous experiences with this villain. I wouldnt fault you for it.
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  #3 (permalink)  
Old 02-24-2008, 08:31 PM
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Mike McDermott
 
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Location: Michigan
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Default

he almost always has a draw here once he checks on the turn. he cant think you are going to fall for a check raise again

i would bet/shove turn whatever is appropriate. especially with history his flop cr range is so wide.
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  #4 (permalink)  
Old 02-24-2008, 11:52 PM
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Location: Nottingham, UK
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Default

I would bet the turn here.

If I'm the villain, I'd c/r such a huge range on that flop.
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  #5 (permalink)  
Old 02-25-2008, 12:10 AM
Mike McDermott
 
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Location: UK
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Default

TP2K against this guy is the nuts, get all in
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  #6 (permalink)  
Old 02-25-2008, 01:07 AM
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Default

One other thing. At 25nl you should actively avoid sitting at the same table as someone with those stats, especially if they are tricky.

If you have to sit at the same table then make sure they are not in the blinds when you have the button or they'll seriously eat into your winrate. There's so many fish around to fill those spots.
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  #7 (permalink)  
Old 02-25-2008, 06:34 AM
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Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 1,049
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Default

Tight aggresive is right. He almost always has a draw, a storng draw btw.
At least for me, I put him on a strong draw and I'll stick to that. If I get my read wrong, well, he's going to win money if he has a set / fullhouse.

If you reraise all in on the flop, he'll call because of the strong draw and gets to see 2 cards. So here, I call and I pray for a shit card to come on the turn. The 5h is a shit card.
I'd shove turn now. His chances to hit are now reduced and the price is very high to draw on the river.

I played a hand just friday with my friend (very skilled loose agressive player) and he had a strong draw and I like you checked on the turn after he raised my bet on the flop. He checked back and hit his draw on the river, bet a good amount, I Called, and that's it. Now I can remember the play he did for the future.

Back to the hand... Which draw does he have ? What is he holding ? I put him an AdJd or Jd9d. Maybe AdKd, but I think he would of reraised that preflop.

Last edited by mister.x; 02-25-2008 at 06:37 AM.
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