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Go Back PokerForums.org > Strategy Discussion > Ring Hand Analysis > 100nl 2 pair with turn donk bet

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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 02-18-2008, 12:02 PM
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Default 100nl 2 pair with turn donk bet

Session is about 10 mins in, so no real reads. The guys stats are 73/10/2 but it's only 10 hands, so we can tell he's either playing far too many hands or just limping too much, despite the small sample.

Standard line? There's never any flat calling of this turn right?

He has $57 behind on the turn.

$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight | fold when you know you're beat (BETA)

Stacks:
UTG ($128.15)
Hero ($102.50)
BTN ($37.25)
SB ($90.25)
BB ($119.30)

Pre-flop: ($1.5, 5 players) Hero is CO
1 fold, Hero bets $3.50, 1 fold, SB calls $3, 1 fold

Flop: ($8, 2 players)
SB bets $5, Hero bets $19.50, SB calls $14.50.

Turn: ($47, 2 players)
SB bets $10, Hero goes all-in $79.50,
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  #2 (permalink)  
Old 02-18-2008, 01:32 PM
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guys with this stats plays a diamond draw exactly like this, shoving turn for protection.
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Old 02-18-2008, 01:43 PM
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Something feels very bad here : calling the raise on the flop means ????? It's really hard to tell if he's still on a draw or trapping with a set. Or does he have an overpair like QQ KK or AA... Did he hit a strong draw on the turn (7d8d - KdQd) ?

That weak turn bet 10$ in a 50$ pot is kinda strange. Leading into the raiser with a small bet like that...
The thing is, he has to believe in his hand on the turn, cuz he knows it's going to cost him all his chips if he loses. Overvalue top pair ? Overpair ? Trapping ? Im a bit lost here honestly
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Old 02-18-2008, 02:21 PM
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He bet fairly strong OOP on the flop, which could indicate a flush or straight draw trying to take the pot down without the risk of not hitting, but he could check call with those hands too. When he calls your raise, I'd start getting alarm bells though. He could do that with a strong flush or straight draw, or perhaps he's slowplaying an overpair or set.

On the turn he bets again, but it's such a donk bet. His straight might have completed, but it's unlikely he was playing the flop like that with KQ (except diamonds) or 87. It might have also given him top pair with QJ, trips with JJ or still have an overpair or flush draw, which you are well ahead of now.

So I think we are ahead of enough hands to get it all in, even with the potentially scary turn card.

Why the overbet shove? Are you hoping he'll fold some hands you are behind (not likely)? Or do you just want to price out a flush draw completely, rather than giving him just a bad price to call for a flush with a $40 bet?

And mister X, I think you have given a decent range of hands, and that's about all you can do. Trying to put villain on exactly 99 here will just not be accurate enough in the long run and you'll end up not getting value with strong hands, so you have to assign as close a range of hands as best as you can, and see how you stand against that range. Yes we'll lose against some of that range, but overall we'll have success in the long run if our ranges are accurate and decisions based on that range are correct.
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Old 02-18-2008, 02:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sb944 View Post
Why the overbet shove?
He has less than a pot sized raise left in his stack.
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Old 02-18-2008, 08:45 PM
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Top two pair we are committed to this IMO. So what if the J comes on the turn. I say you played it well.
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Old 02-18-2008, 11:47 PM
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At lot of funky straight draws on the flop hit their J on the turn, also the fact that he plays the diamond draw the same (like piv said) is good enough for me to push here. I like the push.
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Old 02-19-2008, 03:12 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sooted? View Post
At lot of funky straight draws on the flop hit their J on the turn, also the fact that he plays the diamond draw the same (like piv said) is good enough for me to push here. I like the push.
great minds think alike huh? pity im bad at cards
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Old 02-19-2008, 04:49 AM
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nh
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Old 02-19-2008, 04:55 AM
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Yeah, shove is good. Two flush draws and a straight, might as well make him pay all his money if he wants to donkey-draw.
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