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Go Back PokerForums.org > Strategy Discussion > Ring Hand Analysis > 100nl TP+gutshot gets shoved on flop

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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 02-14-2008, 11:38 AM
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Default 100nl TP+gutshot gets shoved on flop

Villain is complete unknown. I've been at the table for about 10 hands.

Call or not? It's $77 to call I think.

$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight | fold when you know you're beat (BETA)

Stacks:
UTG ($36.45)
Hero ($100.00)
BTN ($113.25)
SB ($25.10)
BB ($171.20)

Pre-flop: ($1.5, 5 players) Hero is CO
1 fold, Hero bets $3.50, 2 folds, BB calls $2.50.

Flop: ($7.5, 2 players)
BB bets $5, Hero bets $19, BB goes all-in $162.70, ??????
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Old 02-14-2008, 11:45 AM
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I fold. At worst here I think he has 2 pair he could easily have ,A10 AJ, J10, or even KQ. If we do call we are hoping for him to have a flush draw or AQ or if he was LAG Ax. Thats all we beat here.
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Old 02-14-2008, 11:46 AM
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i think we're beat to many times...or look him up for future info?
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Old 02-14-2008, 11:46 AM
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foooooold

the absolute best case we have here is against a flush draw making it 60/40, but most cases we are far behind

I'd pokerstove but I'm at work

Last edited by classickred; 02-14-2008 at 11:48 AM.
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Old 02-14-2008, 12:05 PM
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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,382,133 games 5.578 secs 427,058 games/sec

Board: Jd Ad Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.389% 41.04% 06.80% 977708 161984.50 { AcKh }
Hand 1: 52.611% 46.32% 06.80% 1103407 162008.50 { AhAs, KcKd, KcKs, KdKs, KhKs, QcQd, QcQh, QcQs, QhQs, JdJh, JdJs, JhJs, TcTd, TcTh, TdTh, AdKd, AsKs, AhQh, AsQs, AhJh, AsJs, AhTh, KcQc, KdQd, KsQs, KdTd, KhTh, KsTs, Qd9d, Qh9h, Qd8d, JcTc, JhTh, Td9d, 9d8d, 9s8s, 8d7d, AdKc, AdKs, AhKc, AhKs, AsKc, AsKd, AdQc, AdQh, AdQs, AhQc, AhQd, AhQs, AsQc, AsQd, AsQh, AdJc, AdJh, AdJs, AhJc, AhJd, AhJs, AsJc, AsJd, AsJh, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs, KdQc, KdQh, KdQs, KsQc, KsQd, KsQh, KcJd, KcJs, KdJc, KdJs, KsJc, KsJd, KsJh, JcTd, JcTh, JsTh }

That's a rough range for him I think. Pot odds say I need 38.5%.
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Last edited by davidab157; 02-14-2008 at 12:08 PM.
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Old 02-14-2008, 12:12 PM
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I'd really have to give an unknown credit for at least having a NFD or two pair (a set of 10's or straight being possible as well) after shoving over your greater-than-pot size flop reraise

..imo
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Old 02-14-2008, 12:13 PM
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It was a less than pot size raise.

$7.50 + 5 + 5 = 17.50

I raised him 14.

I think it's close tbh.
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Old 02-14-2008, 12:16 PM
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my line of thinking there was Pot=12.50 instead of 17.50. I guess I don't know the convention there..?

PSB or not, he'd have some balls to shove over it. And being that he's an unknown we haven't seen his balls yet
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Old 02-14-2008, 12:34 PM
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fold. give him the benefit of the doubt for a hand.

Just remember this :
You raise UTG, he called, he bets into you, you raise, he RERAISES.
What can you have for a raise UTG ? and then reraise his bet ? AA, AK, AQ, QQ, KK are the best choice, and he does not give a shit about it it seems. He got overexcited and wants to crack oyu. I think he flopped a str8 here with KQ or has a set. He might have AK of diamonds here or the AQ, Q of diamonds giving himself outs for a flush with a made hand

Last edited by mister.x; 02-14-2008 at 12:40 PM.
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Old 02-14-2008, 12:39 PM
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I like x's point on your position. I don't play 100NL, but I assume your average player would be smart enough to give a bit more credit to an UTG raise. He's an unknown, so it's good to remember that we're an unknown to them as well.
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