lol you should see the stuff they show up with.

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you are right, some of the stuff is funny...

but with no reads and anything, I'll assume he knows what he's doing.

Who's UTG, we are CO 5 handed, a great place to steal from. Generally though, we aren't getting "many" calls from guys with a strong ace or monster pair. I'd rule out JJ+ and AK here, as villains just don't cold call with those hands often enough from the blinds (or anywhere else). TT- is much more likely, strong SC type hands like 98s 87s, and maybe some weaker aces, or suited aces. Some people also like suited kings, throw in most of broadway too like QJ, KQ type hands from some players.

So I think due to the flop action we could easily rule out suited aces, suited kings that aren't diamonds, weak aces (below AT at least?), medium to low PP's. Even certain 1 pair broadways like QJ probably wouldn't play like this.

But you can't discount combo draws, suited connectors of diamonds, suited connectors for the straight in some cases.

I'm not sure without reads though. This could be as tight as made straight, trips and two pair, in which case it's an easy fold. But if you get guys playing draws like this often at that level, it's probably just barely worth a call, just don't expect to walk away with the pot all that often.

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I was hoping you say that, I look forward to finding out in a few months hopefully

fuck. I read mister x's post where he said we were and didn't double check

sorry for the UTG thing !!!
but I still stand by the betting sequence involved.

first instinct is a fold but i think i can find a call here. probably 2 clean kings to counterfeit two pair and 3 clean queens for the nut straight if you're not ahead already. i think fds are a huge part of his range here and you can also chop it. depends how much variance you're keen for i guess. worst case is KQdd lol.

See in general, I need proof of them knowing what they're doing before I give them credit. This is hugely +ev at 50nl, and I assume the same goes for 100nl but I do admit I'm not that experienced at this level yet.

As for the hand, I think it's really close. Obv it's hugely high variance if I call and I was surprised at the pokerstove numbers even though I gave him QQ+KK in his range (which is a little bit less likely imo). Given the doubt of whether he shoves a flush+straight draw, I think it's ok to call or fold.

So in conclusion, I have no idea.

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According to your PokerStove range I call but if it were me in the actual hand I have to fold against an unknown - donkeys just love broadway cards too much and that flop hit him in so many ways it's untrue.

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This is actually pretty close, but if I were in the hand I'd fold without any reads.

You've done the pokerstove analysis yourself for what you thought his range was


/thread???