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Go Back PokerForums.org > Strategy Discussion > Ring Hand Analysis > NL25: 77 from BB facing 3 bet

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  #11 (permalink)  
Old 02-26-2008, 10:24 AM
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fold
you will only get into trouble here and risk more chips. Imagine a 2-3-6 flop here or 2-5-10 flop here. Facing a big bet, you do what ? Fold.
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  #12 (permalink)  
Old 02-26-2008, 02:47 PM
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edit : you hope to hit a set which will happen 11% of time (or 1/9)

so basically for the same play, you will pay 3$ (nice round number instead of 2.80) 9 times = 27$. That is if nobody reraises if your call preflop.

You need to win at least 27$ when you hit your set for the call to be justified.

Pot = 9$ if both call. 27-9 = 18$. You need to make 18$ more dollars in someway with :
SB ($25.40)
CO ($25.10)

which is not impossible if somebody holds AA KK QQ, and the flop in raggy, or AK7, somebody with 2 pairs.

I'd still fold here because of the trouble it can get you in and I don't like playing a low pocket pair like that, but if you were 100% sure there is no more reraising, does anybody makes the play odds wise ? You also must be sure somebody will pay you off with a great read.
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  #13 (permalink)  
Old 02-26-2008, 03:39 PM
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Issue with set odds is that sometimes (I haven't done the maths here cos I'm lazy) you "have" to stack them every time you hit a set to make it profitable and people seem to think that will happen all the time. It doesn't. Guys with these stats will raise decent sized ranges so you won't get paid off as much.

If the 3bettor was a 10/1 nit then it's a better spot to be calling cos you know he has AA/KK and is going to really struggle not to stack off.
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Old 02-26-2008, 03:53 PM
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Pocket pairs are overrated anyhoo.
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  #15 (permalink)  
Old 02-27-2008, 01:12 AM
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Yup David's right, 9-1 is not enough. Not only do you have to consider that you have to stack them all the time but you also have to consider the times you get set under setted or lose to a straight/flush or whatever
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Old 02-27-2008, 01:37 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jharding666 View Post
Yup David's right, 9-1 is not enough. Not only do you have to consider that you have to stack them all the time but you also have to consider the times you get set under setted or lose to a straight/flush or whatever
set over/under set is 0ev.
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  #17 (permalink)  
Old 02-27-2008, 02:18 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by piv View Post
set over/under set is 0ev.
Not when you are counting set over set for you're positive equity. Like if you have 66 and stack someone with 55 when you both hit a set, you'll be counting that in your implied odds. So you have to take away the -ev of set under set.
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Old 02-27-2008, 03:36 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by piv View Post
set over/under set is 0ev.
When you call a raise with 77 putting someone on an overpair you have no overset equity.
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Old 02-27-2008, 04:47 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by piv View Post
set over/under set is 0ev.
Are you saying 33 has the same equity as 99 in terms of set over/under set?
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Old 02-27-2008, 03:07 PM
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you guys are probably right, but doesn't the amount of times you cooler people 99v33 directly make up for the times you have 33vs99?
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