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Go Back PokerForums.org > Strategy Discussion > Ring Hand Analysis > NL25 JTs TPWK against flop shove

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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 02-06-2008, 04:46 PM
River Rat
 
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Default NL25 JTs TPWK against flop shove

MP is 77/0/4 over very few hands, I'm raising a lot, probably 29/26, but he wouldn't know that unless he's been datamining (possible). 5 hands in and he'd called/limped every hand, so I double barrelled him with nothing on a very hard to hit board and he folded. A few hands later he'd called a PF raise from me, as had another. He folded the flop, and I 3 bet the other guys turn raise (this time with the nutz), and the other player folded. MP commented "you have your head up your ass" to the other player??? This hand happened very shortly after.

Straight after my cbet he commented "fk u" and shoved. I can't say I really gave him any range at all. A 3 is possible here, as is QQ, I just really can't read him at all when he's calling any two. Given the comments and stats, 72o is possible.

High variance, but it's a call right?

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of Poker coaching - Get an online poker lesson - texas holdem strategy for real poker

MP ($21.80)
Button ($30.25)
SB ($9.70)
BB ($25)
Hero ($41.65)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with , .
Hero raises to $0.85, MP calls $0.85, 3 folds.

Flop: ($2.05) , , (2 players)
Hero bets $1.5, MP raises to $20.95 (All-In), Hero calls $19.45.

Turn: ($43.95) (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($43.95) (2 players, 1 all-in)
.

Final Pot: $43.95
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  #2 (permalink)  
Old 02-06-2008, 06:48 PM
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oh dude thats terrible, what do you think you're ahead of?

combined with the fact he said fuck you in the chat he wants a call.
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Old 02-06-2008, 08:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by piv View Post
oh dude thats terrible, what do you think you're ahead of?

combined with the fact he said fuck you in the chat he wants a call.
I agree with Piv on this one. You are most likely behind. Your most basic read is off I think.
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Old 02-06-2008, 11:08 PM
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I think you can fold just because you have only 10 bbs commited to a pot that is pretty freaking sketchy. Hero calls usually are not profitable in the long run.
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Old 02-07-2008, 12:06 AM
Mike McDermott
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by youngplayer9 View Post
Hero calls usually are not profitable in the long run.
Without correct, well established reads, you're right.



OP this really is a fold, you aren't getting good odds to call. You need to be good around 45% of the time here and I just don't see that being very likely. All you beat is a bluff and IF he has a weaker J then a lot of the time the pot will be split anyway.
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Old 02-07-2008, 02:42 AM
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yeah fold. you haven't committed enough to the pot to be calling there.

as an aside i'm not a huge fan of the pf raise, but if you're playing lag it's ok i guess.
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Old 02-07-2008, 04:18 AM
Mike McDermott
 
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PF is absolutely fine if you're a competent post flop player.
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  #8 (permalink)  
Old 02-07-2008, 05:23 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jharding666 View Post
PF is absolutely fine if you're a competent post flop player.
I agree for higher stakes but not totally convinced at 25nl. I think you get too many calls pf to make this good in EP.
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Old 02-07-2008, 12:56 PM
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Yeah, I made two hero calls in the 500 hand session, and only won one from two. This one I beat him with a better jack, but after playing it I agree it's both foolish and even what he turned over will split the pot if anything above a Ten hits. I also agree it's very rarely a pure bluff, and even TT- is unlikely a lot of the time. The other was fairly similar, I'd flopped top trips with K9 against a donkish player and went down to KT, with his better kicker.

As for the raise, I was playing a little more LAG on the table, but there were quite a few players who were folding everything, so a cbet was going to work enough to keep this profitable until some players start playing back. Plus I was hoping this guy would call with a worse hand, and well .... the above would happen. Incidentally I stacked off a fairly deep stack and won again shortly after, so up 3 buyins in 41 hands before calling it a night, nice!
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Old 02-07-2008, 03:33 PM
Mike McDermott
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by davidab157 View Post
I agree for higher stakes but not totally convinced at 25nl. I think you get too many calls pf to make this good in EP.
So what if you get lots of calls? Everyone c/f's the flop when they miss anyway at this level and our hand is disguised for when we hit.
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