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Go Back PokerForums.org > Strategy Discussion > Ring Hand Analysis > 200nl - River call with effectively 3rd pair?

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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 02-02-2008, 03:31 PM
Mike McDermott
 
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Default 200nl - River call with effectively 3rd pair?

villain here is 44/14/2.5 over 125 hands.

He is an uber fish that is capable of making big calls when he rivers a pair of 2s. My notes say very specifically never to bluff him.

On the flop I think I'm ahead of his calling range. I think he calls me with any Ace, any flush draw, any 5x hand as well as straight draws. He doesn't fold any better hands but I don't think that matters here.

Turn is a good card for us, it gives us an OESD and is likely to be a card that keeps us ahead (well I think we're ahead). I checked for pot control, should I bet again given my read?

River is a pretty easy call with 3rd pair?

Hand ID 129450752
NL $200 Texas Hold'em (No Limit) - 19:00:54 02/02/2008 ET
Table 'Railbird (6 Max)', 6 seats max, Real money
Seat 3 is the button. Small Blind $1, Big Blind $2
Note: seat IDs range from 1 to 6
Seat 1 (sitOut) : pbs508341193, amount $153.63, amount bet $0, penalty (None)
Seat 2 (playing) : jaybird02, amount $84.40, amount bet $0, penalty (None)
Seat 3 (playing) : turfman, amount $118.35, amount bet $0, penalty (None)
Seat 4 (playing) : macdanny, amount $175.30, amount bet $0, penalty (None)
Seat 6 (playing) : Hero, amount $288, amount bet $0, penalty (None)
macdanny: Small Blind ($1)
Hero: Big Blind ($2)
** Dealing Down Cards **
Dealt to Hero: [, ]
jaybird02: Fold
turfman: Fold
macdanny: Call ($1)
Hero: Raise ($8)
macdanny: Call ($6)
** Dealing Flop **
Community cards: [, , ]
macdanny: Check ($0)
Hero: Bet ($10)
macdanny: Call ($10)
** Dealing Turn **
Community cards: []
macdanny: Check ($0)
Hero: Check ($0)
** Dealing River **
Community cards: []
macdanny: Bet ($24)
Hero: Call ($24)
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Old 02-03-2008, 04:22 AM
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While you may not want to bluff him, I'd rather a little better read to call on the river. That is a typical fish line for a monster hand. Obv you knew him better than I do so I don't think it's terrible.

I bet bigger on flop, pot is $17 right? I make it at least $12.

Turn I play the same.
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Old 02-03-2008, 06:14 AM
Mike McDermott
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by davidab157 View Post
While you may not want to bluff him, I'd rather a little better read to call on the river. That is a typical fish line for a monster hand. Obv you knew him better than I do so I don't think it's terrible.

I bet bigger on flop, pot is $17 right? I make it at least $12.

Turn I play the same.
Pot was probably $15.25
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Old 02-05-2008, 01:15 AM
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Seems a pretty standard river call to me although you do feel pretty owned when he has value bet 82.
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Old 02-05-2008, 01:36 AM
Mike McDermott
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by davidab157 View Post
While you may not want to bluff him, I'd rather a little better read to call on the river. That is a typical fish line for a monster hand. Obv you knew him better than I do so I don't think it's terrible.

I bet bigger on flop, pot is $17 right? I make it at least $12.

Turn I play the same.
Why are you checking the turn? For pot control? For a free shot at the straight? Because you think you're behind his range?
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Old 02-05-2008, 02:16 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jharding666 View Post
Why are you checking the turn? For pot control? For a free shot at the straight? Because you think you're behind his range?
Good showdown value against his range and our hand hates a check-raise.
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Old 02-05-2008, 03:03 AM
Mike McDermott
 
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Originally Posted by davidab157 View Post
Good showdown value against his range and our hand hates a check-raise.
So why are you saying you want a better read before calling the river?
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Old 02-05-2008, 05:29 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jharding666 View Post
So why are you saying you want a better read before calling the river?
well your read was he makes hero calls and is generally a station, that doesn't help with what he's betting. the good showdown value doesn't mean i'm gonna call any bet, it just means i hate getting raised and having to fold it.

his line is also a typical one for a fish with a monster.

that said i probably will call it more often than not, just not too happy about it.
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Old 02-05-2008, 07:13 AM
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either he has a busted flush draw or he you beat, i think i would have folded the river
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Old 02-05-2008, 11:32 AM
Mike McDermott
 
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The only hands he leads the river with that beat me are Qx and flopped sets (which are very unlikely).

Given my turn check and the Q on the river it is a perfect spot for him to bluff a missed draw.
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