200nl - River call with effectively 3rd pair? - Page 2

youngplayer9 · #11 (**permalink**) 02-05-2008, 08:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jharding666

The only hands he leads the river with that beat me are Qx and flopped sets (which are very unlikely).

Given my turn check and the Q on the river it is a perfect spot for him to bluff a missed draw.

I definitely think calling here is +ev just for what you said.

He will be bluffing the missed flushdraw more than he will have the Q.

He also could be holding an eight though which just sucks. Ax8x.

jharding666 · #12 (**permalink**) 02-06-2008, 01:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by youngplayer9

I definitely think calling here is +ev just for what you said.

He will be bluffing the missed flushdraw more than he will have the Q.

He also could be holding an eight though which just sucks. Ax8x.

I don't think this villain is good enough to value bet an 8 here fwiw

squeezyplayer · #13 (**permalink**) 02-06-2008, 09:05 AM

Yea, standard call here for me because most fish are terrible at valuebetting, and-like you seem to already understand-his range is pretty much {trips/boat, bluff}. I don't think we're always good, but fortunately we only need to be ahead like 30% to make this a call.

youngplayer9 · #14 (**permalink**) 02-07-2008, 12:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jharding666

I don't think this villain is good enough to value bet an 8 here fwiw

I didn't think about that, pretty hard to tell when your middle pair(imo of course) is ahead on a board like that. But so many times that I think my middle pair IS ahead a donk's range and then they end up poopin all over me.